Bayer's Rally Hits a Technical Speed Bump as Earnings Countdown Begins
Published on 07/21/2026 at 18:25 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The stock has added more than 30% since mid-June, but the pause that arrived at the start of this week is giving traders something to chew on ahead of the 4 August quarterly report. After briefly slipping below its 20-day moving average on Monday to trade at €47.00, Bayer rebounded the following session, closing at €47.55 with a gain of 1.15%. The short-term dip looks less like a trend reversal and more like a respiratory break after a long sprint.
The broader technical picture remains firmly bullish. The current price sits 14.21% above the 50-day average of €41.63 and a hefty 23.80% above the 200-day line at €38.41. The relative strength index of 56.4 suggests the stock is neither overheated nor oversold, leaving room for further upside. Over the past 30 days the share has climbed 25.10%, while year-to-date gains stand at 28.48% and the 12-month advance reaches 73.35%. Yet the 52-week high of €53.86, touched on 3 July, still lies 11.72% away — a reminder that the rally has not fully recaptured its recent peak.
Two stories behind the surge
Analysts and market participants are debating whether the explosive move is a genuine turnaround or a squeeze on short sellers. The stock bottomed at €25.09 in August 2025 and has since rocketed 87% higher. With annualised 30-day volatility above 62%, the price swings are unmistakably nervy. One camp points to forced covering by bears as a key driver, while the other argues that operational progress is finally being rewarded. JP Morgan, which rates Bayer “Overweight” with a €50 target, sees its sales and adjusted Ebitda forecasts in line with consensus and expects management to reaffirm full-year guidance on 4 August.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bayer?
What the numbers say
The market is bracing for a swing back to profit in the second quarter. Eight analysts forecast average earnings per share of €0.769, compared with a loss of €0.200 in the same period last year. Seven analysts expect quarterly revenue of €10.73 billion, a marginal 0.10% decline year-on-year. For the full year, 15 analysts project EPS of €4.38 — a dramatic recovery from last year’s loss of €3.680 per share — while 16 analysts see revenue edging up to €45.68 billion from €45.58 billion.
The consolidation of the past few days may simply reflect profit-taking after a powerful run. If the quarterly report confirms the stability that JP Morgan anticipates, the uptrend could resume with fresh conviction. If the figures disappoint, the stock’s elevated volatility means the pullback could deepen. Either way, the 4 August release will likely set the tone for the weeks ahead.
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