Bloom Energy’s $1.7 Billion Deal Overshadowed by $10 Bear Case and Short-Seller Scrutiny
Published on 07/18/2026 at 16:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The gulf between the most bullish and bearish views on Bloom Energy has rarely been wider. UBS sees the stock at $350, while Redburn Atlantic slaps a $10 target on it — a chasm of $340 that leaves investors searching for a middle ground. Meantime, the company’s stock has tumbled 40% from its June 25 peak, hit by a short-seller report and a broad sell-off in fuel-cell names that even a $1.7 billion data-center financing deal could not arrest.
The battering began in earnest on July 8, when Hunterbrook Media accused Bloom of relying on Chinese scandium despite claims to the contrary. The shares dropped 5.7% to $254.29 that day, and the damage spread: on July 10, the whole fuel-cell complex sold off, with Bloom losing another 8% to $235.69, FuelCell Energy sinking 11% and Plug Power giving up 6%. By July 16, news of the Nebius deal — backed by Industrial Development Funding and Oaktree with $1.7 billion to deploy Bloom fuel cells in AI data centers — briefly lifted sentiment, but the shares still closed down 13%. The rebound on Friday, a modest 1.77% gain to €183.80, hardly masks a seven-day loss of 14.3% and a one-month decline of 26%.
Analysts are split not just on valuation but on the very thesis. Truist Securities initiated coverage last week with a Hold and $250 target, Susquehanna upgraded and set $298, Baird reaffirmed Outperform at $310, and Jefferies lifted its target to $246 while keeping a Hold. The official 29-analyst consensus sits at just $186.52, well below most of those fresh individual targets, underscoring how far the stock has fallen from grace. UBS, which raised its target to $350 earlier this month, urged investors to use the weakness to buy. Redburn Atlantic’s $10 bear case, meanwhile, reflects a view that the company’s long-term economics simply do not add up.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bloom Energy?
Management pushed back hard against Hunterbrook’s supply-chain allegations, issuing two rebuttals in the same week, and the stock enjoyed a brief relief rally after the second statement. But the selling pressure resumed almost immediately. The 14-day relative strength index now sits at 37.1, a level that suggests the stock is approaching oversold territory, while trading well below its 50-day moving average of €241.76. The annualized 30-day volatility has hit 115%, placing Bloom among the most turbulent names in the US market.
Institutional investors are sending mixed signals: Bessemer Group boosted its stake by 228% in the first quarter to 587,947 shares, while Avalon Trust cut its holding by 34%. Diversify Wealth Management opened a new position worth $891,000, and John G Ullman & Associates sold 7,113 shares, retaining 125,662. Insiders sold 153,617 shares over the past 90 days, adding to the overhang.
All eyes now turn to the second-quarter earnings release on July 28 after the market close. The consensus EPS estimate is $0.39, compared with the $0.44 reported in Q1, when revenue surged 130% to $751.1 million and the full-year revenue guidance was raised to $3.4–$3.8 billion. For the bulls, that report offers a chance to refute the short-seller narrative with hard numbers. For the bears, it is another data point in a story where a $10 price target and a $350 price target cannot both be right — and where the market is still deciding which one is closer to the truth.
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