Bloom Energy's JPMorgan Boost Collides With Project Delays and Scandium Fears Ahead of Earnings
Published on 07/23/2026 at 08:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The tug-of-war over Bloom Energy's trajectory has rarely been more pronounced. On one side, JPMorgan just slapped a $346 price target on the fuel-cell maker — a nearly 30% increase from its prior $267 call — sending shares surging more than 16% intraday on Tuesday. On the other, skeptics point to delayed mega-projects, supply-chain vulnerabilities, and a stock that remains 37% below its late-June peak of €308.50 despite the rally.
The whiplash is nothing new for a name with annualized volatility north of 120%. But with second-quarter results due July 28 after the bell, the competing narratives are about to collide head-on.
The Bull Case: JPMorgan Extends Its Horizon
JPMorgan analyst Mark Strouse kept his "Overweight" rating intact while pushing his price target sharply higher. The key move: extending his modeling horizon to 2030, under which he projects Bloom can deliver 4.1 gigawatts of product revenue. That forecast rests on signed contracts, including an expanded partnership with Brookfield Asset Management.
Strouse also addressed the elephant in the room — scandium. The rare-earth element is critical to Bloom's ceramic electrolyte fuel cells, and short-seller allegations about supply constraints sent the stock tumbling earlier this month. JPMorgan pushed back, noting that available supply could reportedly support annual production of up to 25 gigawatts.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Bloom Energy?
The market absorbed the message quickly. After Tuesday's spike, shares closed Wednesday at €195.60, down 1.61% on the day but still reflecting the week's gains.
The Bear Case: Delays That Won't Go Away
TD Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne isn't buying the optimism. He maintains a "Hold" rating with a $235 target, arguing the stock is fairly valued at current levels. His concerns center on two marquee projects that have slipped badly.
Oracle's 2.45-gigawatt Project Jupiter still lacks an air permit, and the natural gas pipeline intended to supply the site is entangled in a dispute with federal regulators. Meanwhile, Bloom's project with American Electric Power near Cheyenne, Wyoming, has seen its timeline slide by two years in less than 90 days.
Other analysts occupy the middle ground. Clear Street's Tim Moore reiterated "Hold" at $290, noting that the broader sell-off in AI-chip stocks since mid-June has dragged Bloom lower too. Susquehanna kept its "Positive" rating and nudged its target from $293 to $298, citing rising electricity demand from data centers and electrification.
A Divided Wall Street
The analyst consensus sits at "Moderate Buy," but the distribution tells a more nuanced story. Of 27 analysts tracked, eight assign "Strong Buy," two say "Moderate Buy," 16 recommend "Hold," and one is at "Strong Sell." On a broader 29-analyst consensus, the average price target stands at $286.20.
Truist's Christopher Souther, who initiated coverage with "Hold" and a $250 target, captures the ambivalence: Bloom is a clear beneficiary of AI-driven power demand, but its dependence on a handful of large customers creates concentration risk.
The Options Market Is Bracing for Impact
The earnings report is shaping up as a binary event. The options market is pricing in a 32% swing — a figure that underscores just how uncertain the outcome feels. That's consistent with a stock that's already been on a rollercoaster: down 15% in five trading days after short-seller Hunterbrook targeted the company, then up more than 11% on the JPMorgan call.
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Despite the turbulence, Wall Street still expects triple-digit growth in both revenue and earnings for the upcoming quarter. The question is whether Bloom can deliver concrete shipment numbers and margin improvements to back up the narrative.
The Scandium Question Lingers
The supply-chain debate over scandium remains unresolved. China now requires export licenses for the material, raising the stakes for a company whose fuel cells depend on it. TD Cowen has flagged this as a risk, while JPMorgan argues the available supply is sufficient. The earnings call on July 28 at 5 p.m. ET will be the first chance for management to address the issue directly.
What's at Stake
Bloom Energy has locked in major deals with Brookfield, Oracle's Project Jupiter, and American Electric Power. The order book is growing fast, fueled by AI infrastructure demand. But the execution gap — between signed contracts and delivered projects — is widening.
The stock's 155% year-to-date gain shows how much optimism is already baked in. With the options market flashing a 32% expected move and analyst opinions sharply divided, the earnings report will likely determine whether Bloom's next leg is higher — or whether the skeptics have been right all along.
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