BMW’s Half-Year Sales Reveal Deepening Divide: China’s 20% Collapse Versus Western Gains
Published on 07/11/2026 at 07:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The scale of BMW’s China headache is laid bare in the group’s first-half delivery numbers. Between January and June 2026, BMW delivered roughly 1.15 million vehicles worldwide — a 4.2% drop from the prior-year period — but the headline figure masks stark regional contrasts. Europe posted a 5.4% sales rise to 496,651 units, while the US added 3.9% to reach 200,661 vehicles. In China, by contrast, deliveries plunged 20.4% to just 261,773 cars.
That deepening slump in Beijing’s showrooms is the primary force behind the automaker’s decision to ramp up its cost-cutting programme. BMW confirmed on Friday that around 7,700 jobs will go under the expanded savings plan, which now includes additional structural measures that will weigh on second-half earnings as one-off charges. The company had already lowered its 2026 outlook in June, warning of a slight decline in deliveries from last year’s 2.464 million units and slashing the EBIT margin target for the automotive segment to just 1-3%, down from the original 4-6% band.
Investors pressed CEO Milan Nedeljkovi? for details during the pre-close call on Friday, with pricing strategy in China and the evolving cost programme dominating the discussion. The Iranian conflict and the prolonged China weakness had already hammered earnings and free cash flow in the second quarter. Despite the margin crunch, BMW is sticking to some key financial targets: free cash flow in the automotive division should still exceed €2.5 billion, and the dividend payout ratio remains at 30-40% of net profit.
Analysts are not entirely downbeat, however. JPMorgan reaffirmed its “Overweight” rating and €82 price target on Friday, pointing to strong demand for products from the “Neue Klasse” platform. The order book for the iX3 electric SUV is approaching 100,000 units, which JPMorgan sees as evidence of robust EV momentum in Europe. BMW itself talks up the new platform as “the strongest BMW portfolio in history,” with two years of launches ahead.
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The company is not holding back on capital spending either. It completed a $1.7 billion investment at its Spartanburg, South Carolina plant on June 30, where it unveiled the next-generation X5 production. The X-badged models now account for more than half of US sales, and overall domestic deliveries in the second quarter jumped 13% to over 102,000 vehicles. German sales also rose 18.6% in June alone, with 26,119 new registrations.
For the full half, the core BMW brand saw global sales decline 6.2% to just over one million units, while MINI delivered its strongest-ever first half with a 11.7% gain to 149,538 cars. BMW Motorrad sales slipped 2.9% to 102,847 motorcycles.
On the market, the stock remains under severe pressure. Shares closed Friday at €58.16, down 0.48% on the day and a cumulative 39.37% loss for 2026. The session’s close leaves the equity just 1.93% above the 52-week low of €57.06 touched on June 30 — and a staggering 40.59% below the December 2025 peak of €97.90. The 200-day moving average of €82.03 is now 28.95% above the current price, while the relative strength index at 30.8 signals oversold conditions that could trigger a technical bounce.
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The full half-year report is due on July 30, and will provide the first real look at how quickly the expanded cost measures are taking effect. For now, the market is waiting to see whether the Neue Klasse’s order momentum can offset the China drag, or whether the 7,700 job cuts are just the beginning of a deeper restructuring.
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