Broadcom's Dual Narrative: Apple Locks In for 2031 as Google Chip Share Erodes
Published on 07/07/2026 at 03:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Broadcom finds itself caught between two powerful currents. A freshly extended pact with Apple through 2031 and a JPMorgan "Strong Buy" rating are reinforcing confidence in the chipmaker’s long-term trajectory — yet a simultaneous erosion of market share at a second hyperscale customer is injecting a note of caution.
The stock closed Monday at €329.00, up 0.94% from the prior session, but remains 23.42% below the 52-week high of €429.60 set on June 3. Over the past month, shares have slipped 2.30%, though the year-to-date gain still stands at 10.91% and the 12-month return at 40.57%. The 14-day RSI of 45.9 sits in neutral territory, while the 30-day annualized volatility of 63.11% signals that sharp moves in either direction remain a distinct possibility.
Apple Riches, Google Risks
The regulatory filing on July 6, 2026, confirmed what many had hoped: Apple, which accounts for roughly 20% of Broadcom’s total revenue, extended its supply agreement for custom ASICs, RF, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth components out to 2031. The deal also encompasses the "Baltra" project — an Apple-designed AI server chip slated for 2027 that will integrate Broadcom technology at its core. For investors, the renewal dispels fears that Apple might progressively in-source chip design and sideline Broadcom as a supplier.
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But that bright spot is partially offset by developments at Google. Macquarie recently downgraded Broadcom to "Neutral," citing intensifying competition from MediaTek in Google’s custom chip business. The investment bank projects Broadcom’s share of Google’s Tensor Processing Unit orders could shrink from 95% today to roughly 65% by 2028 as the search giant diversifies its supplier base. The tension is acute: total demand for AI custom silicon is exploding, yet a key account is actively scaling back dependence on Broadcom.
Backlog and the 100 Billion Target
That crosscurrent helps explain why the stock has not fully recovered from a broader semiconductor rout in early July that knocked the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down roughly 12% in two sessions. Capital rotated out of mega-cap tech names, including Broadcom, into enterprise software plays. Technically, the shares now trade 6.39% below the 50-day moving average of €351.44, but still 5.61% above the 200-day average of €311.54.
Despite the short-term noise, the underlying order book is robust. Broadcom exited the second fiscal quarter with an AI semiconductor backlog exceeding $30 billion, of which only $10.8 billion had been delivered. That gap — between bookings and shipments — provides revenue visibility stretching into 2027. The company reiterated its fiscal 2026 AI revenue guidance of roughly $56 billion, while CEO Hock Tan holds to the longer-term ambition of $100 billion in AI chip sales by fiscal 2027. JPMorgan analysts, who rate the stock a "Strong Buy," see global cloud capex topping $650 billion in 2026, directly benefiting Broadcom’s custom ASIC and networking businesses.
Margins and the Next Catalyst
The first fiscal quarter delivered an EBITDA margin of 68%. Whether those margins can hold as production costs rise and manufacturing scale expands is an open question. The next quarterly report, due September 3, will reveal whether the massive backlog translates into an upgraded second-half outlook — or whether supply-chain inflation begins to bite. For now, Broadcom’s narrative is one of competing forces: an indispensable partner to Apple and the hyperscaler buildout, yet slowly losing exclusivity at a critical client.
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