BYD Faces Dual Headwinds: Hungarian Probe Overshadows Record Exports and Model Offensive
Published on 07/24/2026 at 12:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
BYD is navigating one of its most complex periods yet, with a political investigation in Hungary threatening the foundation of its European expansion just as the company posts record export numbers and unveils a new flagship sedan with over 1,000 kilometers of range. The contrasting narratives — operational strength abroad versus regulatory uncertainty in Europe and a softening home market — are keeping the stock under pressure.
The drama in Budapest centers on Péter Szijjártó, Hungary's former foreign minister of 12 years, who resigned his parliamentary seat after his party's election defeat and announced via Facebook his immediate move to BYD. The controversy stems from the fact that Szijjártó personally negotiated the state subsidies for BYD's factory in Szeged while in office. New Prime Minister Péter Magyar has vowed to review "all decisions, negotiations and state commitments" made by Szijjártó regarding the BYD investment, including subsidies, tax breaks and permits granted under Viktor Orbán's administration.
The investigation has moved swiftly from political rhetoric to concrete action. The day after Magyar's announcement, Hungarian inspectors arrived at the Szeged plant to examine residence permits, social security records and employment contracts. Transparency International Hungary has condemned the move as a textbook case of "revolving door politics," noting the country has no legally mandated cooling-off period for former ministers.
The timing is particularly challenging for BYD. The €4 billion Szeged facility — the company's first European passenger car plant — is already running behind schedule. Vice President Stella Li now expects full vehicle assembly to begin in the fourth quarter, roughly a year later than originally planned. The factory is critical to BYD's European strategy, allowing it to bypass EU import tariffs on Chinese-made EVs.
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The political headwinds have weighed on the stock. In Hong Kong, BYD shares closed Tuesday at HK$89.80, down 0.39%, before falling another 2.17% to HK$87.85 on Wednesday. The German-listed shares currently trade at €9.70, roughly 33% below their 52-week high of €14.54 set in July 2025. The stock sits about 3.4% above its 50-day moving average of €9.53 but nearly 7% below its 200-day average of €10.59, reflecting the fragility of its recovery from the June low of €8.03.
Yet beneath the political noise, BYD's business tells a more nuanced story. International sales hit a record 175,349 vehicles in June, a 95% surge year-over-year. For the first half of 2026, overseas deliveries totaled 789,400 units, up 70.65%. This export momentum is partially offsetting a sharp downturn in China, where domestic sales fell 22% in June to 228,123 units. Global deliveries for the first half reached 1,808,511 vehicles, down 15.72% from the prior-year period.
The company is simultaneously pushing ahead with product launches. The Da Tang SUV, which went on sale June 17, has already accumulated over 150,000 pre-orders, with the 10,000th unit delivered on July 23. Priced between 239,900 and 309,900 yuan, the SUV offers up to 950 kilometers of range and can charge from 10% to 97% in nine minutes thanks to its 1,000-volt architecture.
Coming next is the Da Han, a Dynasty-9 series sedan set to debut at the Chengdu Auto Show in August. Measuring 5,256 millimeters in length with a 3,130-millimeter wheelbase, the all-wheel-drive BEV will deliver 570 kilowatts (764 horsepower) and a top speed of 270 km/h. Range is expected to reach 1,008 kilometers, powered by the second-generation Blade battery. A plug-in hybrid variant is also planned.
BYD is also expanding its manufacturing footprint beyond Europe. In Pakistan, the company is building a $150 million assembly plant in Gharo, Sindh province, with an annual capacity of 25,000 vehicles. Operations are slated to begin in the second half of 2026, in partnership with Mega Motor Company. The company has already installed 19 fast-charging stations along the 1,300-kilometer Karachi-to-Peshawar corridor.
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The competitive landscape remains intense. Tesla's stock plunged more than 13% on July 23, which analysts attributed in part to a new price war led by BYD and other Chinese manufacturers. For BYD itself, valuation debates continue. Simply Wall St calculated a narrative-based fair value of HK$85.40 for the Hong Kong-listed shares — below the current HK$88.65 — while a DCF model suggests a value of HK$434.68. The average analyst price target still implies roughly 40% upside. Foreign banks estimate BYD's quarterly profit at 95 to 102 billion yuan, while the company itself forecasts 80 to 90 billion yuan. The energy storage business is reportedly sold out for 2026, with orders extending into 2028.
The Szeged investigation remains the wild card. Whether the review leads to actual consequences for BYD's subsidies is unclear, and clarity may only emerge once the government releases its findings. For now, the stock is caught between a record-breaking export trajectory and a political cloud that threatens the very European production base meant to sustain that growth.
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