BYD’s Overseas Blitz and Chip-Making Pivot Can’t Halt 24% YTD Slide as Profit Fears Mount
29.06.2026 - 05:04:45 | boerse-global.de
BYD posted a record 160,644 vehicle exports in May, yet its shares closed at €8.29 on Friday — just a hair above the 52-week low of €8.08. The contradiction neatly sums up the tension gripping China’s largest electric-vehicle maker: booming foreign sales and strategic manufacturing wins are being drowned out by a brutal price war at home and a 55.4% plunge in first-quarter net profit.
The stock has lost roughly 24% since the start of the year and nearly 40% over the past twelve months. The Relative Strength Index has sunk to 20.6, deep in oversold territory, while the share price trades more than 23% below its 200-day moving average. But chart watchers caution that technical readings alone rarely lure institutional buyers back.
Samsung Pact to Bypass TSMC
To shore up its long-term competitiveness, BYD is forging a chip-making alliance with Samsung. The Chinese group is negotiating with the South Korean giant to manufacture semiconductors for autonomous driving, seeking an alternative to Taiwan’s TSMC, whose capacity is stretched thin by orders from Google and AMD.
BYD’s in-house Xuanji-A3 chip, destined for its premium models, will be produced on Samsung’s foundry lines. The move is expected to cut production costs by as much as 4,000 renminbi per vehicle compared with sourcing from external suppliers. The vertical-integration push reflects BYD’s broader strategy to control its own hardware supply chain amid rising geopolitical risks around chip manufacturing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying BYD?
Seal 08 Launch Looms with Impressive Specs
The company is also betting on fresh metal to reignite domestic momentum. On July 2, BYD will officially launch the Seal 08, a mid-size sedan priced around 250,000 renminbi. The car rides on an 800-volt architecture and offers an all-wheel-drive system delivering 510 kilowatts of power. The fully electric version boasts a range of up to 900 kilometres, while the plug-in hybrid variant manages 400 kilometres on battery alone.
Operationally, the Seal 08 provides a near-term catalyst. But investors have grown wary of headline products that fail to translate into margin improvement.
Price War Eviscerates Earnings
First-quarter net income collapsed to 4.1 billion yuan, the steepest quarterly drop since 2026. The culprit is a relentless price war in China’s EV market. BYD’s discounts hit multi-year highs in March, squeezing margins even as volumes remained robust. Total deliveries in May reached 383,453 units, a mere 0.25% year-on-year increase — a sign that volume growth is plateauing without the pricing power to maintain profitability.
The cumulative sales tally for the first five months stands at roughly 1.4 million units, still about 20% below the same period last year. The export channel has become the key safety valve: May’s 80.4% surge in overseas shipments set a new company record and helped reclaim the top spot in China’s auto market.
BYD at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
What the Week Holds
The trading calendar is shortened by Hong Kong’s closure on Wednesday, July 1, for the SAR’s founding day. But the economic data due Tuesday could move the needle: both the official NBS manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global PMI for June will be released simultaneously. Those readings will shape demand expectations for vehicles, batteries, and export-oriented production.
A constructive scenario, analysts say, requires three conditions to align: steady June delivery numbers, sustained export momentum, and no negative surprises from the PMIs. If any of those pillars cracks, the oversold technical condition alone is unlikely to attract fresh buying. The June sales figures, due in the coming weeks, will determine whether May’s export record marked a genuine inflection point or merely a statistical outlier.
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BYD Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
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