BYD’s Two-Speed Story: Record Exports Mask a 40% Home-Market Slide
Published on 07/22/2026 at 10:50 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The numbers coming out of BYD tell two starkly different tales. Overseas, the Shenzhen-based automaker is on a tear, posting record sales month after month. At home, its domestic business is in retreat, with volumes falling at a pace that would alarm any investor. The result is a company that looks simultaneously unstoppable and vulnerable — and the stock price reflects that tension.
Exports Hit New Highs as China Slump Deepens
BYD moved 175,349 new-energy vehicles outside China in June, a 94.73% jump from the same month last year and a fresh all-time high, according to Kavout data. For the first half of 2026, overseas deliveries reached 792,256 units, up 70.65% year-on-year. That pushed the international share of total sales to 43.81%.
The domestic picture could hardly be more different. BYD sold just over 1 million vehicles in China in the first six months — 1,016,255 to be precise — representing a 39.57% plunge. Combined global new-energy vehicle sales for the period came to 1,808,511, down 15.72% from a year earlier. The company has responded by raising its 2026 overseas target to 1.5 million vehicles, a figure management believes it can beat.
The Chinese market itself is contracting sharply. Total passenger-vehicle retail sales in June fell 23.2% to 1.602 million units, and the first-half tally dropped 20.2% to 8.701 million. A brutal price war is squeezing margins across the industry, and the cost of lithium carbonate — a key battery input — has surged 125% to over 170,000 yuan per tonne. That adds 15,000 to 20,000 yuan to the production cost of each vehicle, according to reports from 36Kr. China’s auto manufacturing profit margin fell to 4.1% in 2025, the lowest since 2015.
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The margin pressure is showing up in the bottom line. BYD’s net profit in the first quarter of 2026 dropped 55.38% from a year earlier, according to Chinese economic media. That was steeper than Great Wall Motor’s 46.01% decline but less severe than Changan Automobile’s 74.09% collapse.
A Former Diplomat’s Move Triggers a Subsidy Probe
BYD’s European ambitions have run into a political complication. Péter Szijjártó, Hungary’s former foreign minister, has joined the company as head of external relations and new business development. Szijjártó was instrumental in negotiating BYD’s first European factory in Szeged — a €4 billion investment with an initial annual capacity of 200,000 vehicles, set to begin production in the fourth quarter of 2026. He also helped secure Hungary’s approval of €55 million in state aid for BYD’s European headquarters and R&D center in Budapest.
Now Hungary’s new government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar is reviewing all state commitments and subsidies tied to BYD, citing potential conflicts of interest following Szijjártó’s move to the private sector. The probe covers subsidies, tax breaks, and permits related to the automaker’s Hungarian operations. The outcome could affect the pace of BYD’s European rollout, which already faces EU tariff investigations, quality concerns, and patchy demand.
Price Gaps and Production Hurdles
The pricing disparity between BYD’s home and export markets remains striking. The Atto 3 sells for over $41,000 in Germany but under $20,000 in China. In Thailand, local production has allowed BYD to slash the same model’s price from $34,600 to $19,800.
To support its global push, BYD is building factories in Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, and Turkey alongside the Szeged plant. On the product front, the company unveiled the interior of its midsize sedan Qin Max on July 22, with a market launch scheduled for mid-August. That’s a welcome addition, given that sales of the existing Qin lineup collapsed 66.17% in June to just 14,900 units. The new Da Tang EV, launched on June 17, is faring better: BYD says it will deliver the 10,000th unit on July 23, with over 150,000 pre-orders recorded before sales began.
A Recall Down Under
In Australia, BYD is dealing with a customer backlash. The company sold around 1,200 vehicles from the Atto 3, Sealion 8, and Shark 6 models as 2026 model-year cars, even though they were built in 2025. After an independent review, BYD raised its compensation offer from A$1,100 to A$3,500. Some 72% of affected customers accepted the payment; the rest could choose a full refund or a vehicle swap. Another 2,850 vehicles were correctly reclassified as 2025 builds.
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Institutional Investors Split
The diverging trajectories are reflected in how big money is positioning itself. BlackRock reduced its stake in BYD H-shares around July 22, while JPMorgan increased its holding in Li Auto H-shares over the same period. The contrasting moves underscore how differently institutional investors view individual Chinese EV makers’ prospects right now.
Stock Under Pressure Despite Short-Term Bounce
BYD shares closed at €9.98 on Tuesday, down 0.87% on the day. That’s a 14.70% gain over the past 30 days, suggesting some short-term recovery. But the stock remains 6.01% below its 200-day moving average, and the longer-term trend is unmistakably bearish: the shares have lost 32.74% over the past 12 months and sit 33.58% below their 52-week high of €14.80, set on July 22, 2025. In Wednesday’s session, the stock slipped another 1.50% to €9.83.
For investors, the central question is whether BYD’s overseas momentum can eventually offset the drag from its shrinking home market — and whether political headwinds in Europe will slow the very expansion that is meant to drive the next phase of growth.
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