Central Banks Bought 244 Tonnes of Gold in Q1 — But the Fed’s Rate Path Dampens Prices
29.06.2026 - 15:41:58 | boerse-global.de
Gold has lost roughly 11% over the past four weeks, slipping to around $4,058 an ounce, while central banks around the world are buying the metal at a pace not seen in decades. In the first quarter alone, monetary authorities added 244 tonnes to their reserves — a 17% increase from the prior quarter. The disconnect between record institutional demand and a sliding spot price highlights a market caught between structural support and powerful macro headwinds.
The strongest headwind is the Federal Reserve. Goldman Sachs slashed its 2026 year-end gold forecast from $5,400 to $4,900, citing a "surprisingly restrictive" first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The bank now expects no rate cuts this year and sees the first move delayed until mid-2027. The Fed itself raised its 2025 inflation projection sharply from 2.7% to 3.6%, and markets are pricing three additional rate hikes. The probability of a first cut in September stands at just 62%, according to futures. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets make non-yielding gold less attractive in the short term.
Yet the appetite for physical gold among the world’s reserve managers is stronger than ever. The World Gold Council’s latest survey reveals that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while 45% plan to actively expand their own gold reserves. Over the past four years, central banks have accumulated an average of 1,000 tonnes annually — double the rate of the previous decade. Gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the world’s largest reserve asset. As one measure of long-term conviction, 84% of survey respondents expect gold to account for a larger share of total reserves five years from now, up from 76% last year.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
A temporary easing of geopolitical tensions has added to the near-term drag. Late last week, Iran attacked a container ship, a Qatari oil vessel, and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The US responded with retaliatory strikes, and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices higher, stoking inflation fears that hurt gold. Since then, both sides have suspended further attacks, and peace talks in Doha are set to resume this week. The removal of that risk premium has allowed the yellow metal to slide further.
The divergence among major bank forecasts underscores the uncertainty. For year-end 2026, Goldman now stands at $4,900, Morgan Stanley at $5,200, UBS at $5,500, Bank of America and J.P. Morgan around $6,000, and Wells Fargo as high as $6,100–$6,300. J.P. Morgan, in its own projection, sees a $6,000 level by the end of next year and $6,300 the year after. Such a wide range — nearly $1,400 between the lowest and highest — reflects the competing pulls of structural bullishness and monetary tightening. The US jobs report and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, both due this week, will provide the next clues on Fed policy and could determine whether gold holds above $4,000 or tests lower ground.
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