Central Banks Stockpile Gold at a Record Pace as Oil-Fired Rate Fears Drag the Metal Lower
Published on 07/18/2026 at 03:32 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold is trading below $4,000 a troy ounce, yet the world’s monetary authorities have never been more eager to buy. The disconnect between a market spooked by rising interest rates and an official sector scooping up physical metal has become the defining feature of this week’s action. With a relative strength index of 40.1, bullion sits in neutral territory — neither oversold nor overbought — while its distance below the 50-day moving average has stretched to 6.71%.
The spot price ended the week at $4,015.40 on Friday, a gain of 0.88% on the day but still down 2.72% over the prior five sessions. At one point during the week it slipped as low as $3,977, within 1.94% of the 52-week trough of $3,901 touched in late October 2025. The monthly decline now stands at 6.12%.
Two forces are working in tandem to cap gold’s safe-haven appeal. First, the escalating military confrontation between the United States and Iran. US forces struck targets inside Iran multiple times this week, with President Donald Trump threatening further attacks on Iranian infrastructure if diplomatic efforts fail. Tehran retaliated with strikes on American bases in neighboring countries, sending oil prices sharply higher. That energy shock has reignited inflation fears — the very opposite of the environment that usually bolsters gold.
Second, the US Federal Reserve’s messaging is keeping rate-sensitive investors on edge. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has called for another increase, while Vice Chair Philip Jefferson signalled his support for tighter policy should inflation fail to improve. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated his commitment to restoring price stability. The market now assigns roughly a 50% probability to a rate hike at the September meeting, up from lower levels earlier in the week. Although a July increase has been ruled out thanks to softer consumer and producer price data, the uncertainty is enough to push the dollar higher and lift bond yields — both headwinds for the non-yielding metal.
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Central banks, however, are exploiting the weakness. Poland’s central bank governor Adam Glapi?ski reported that the country purchased 82 tonnes of gold in the first half of 2026, boosting its reserves to 632.4 tonnes and cementing Warsaw’s status as one of the most active official buyers globally. China’s central bank added 480,000 fine ounces in June alone, the strongest monthly intake since October 2023, marking the 20th consecutive month of purchases. Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch noted that the lower price level appeared to have triggered the People’s Bank of China’s stepped-up buying.
A survey by the World Gold Council, covering 74 central banks, found that 45% intend to increase their gold holdings over the next twelve months — the highest proportion since the survey began in 2018. Only one institution plans to reduce its stockpile. This structural demand contrasts sharply with the nervousness among retail and speculative investors, who have retreated as prices fell.
Among other precious metals, the picture was mixed on Friday. Silver gained 0.6% to $55.83 an ounce. Platinum slipped 1% to $1,602.02, while palladium eased 0.4% to $1,244.84. Analysts expect continued pressure across the complex next week.
Gold at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The immediate outlook hinges on whether Trump follows through on his threat against Iranian infrastructure. If the rhetoric remains just that, the Fed debate in Washington will continue to dominate. But with central banks adding gold at a record clip, the floor beneath this market may prove firmer than the recent price action suggests.
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