Circus SE’s Chairman Snaps Up Shares as Revenue Forecast Slashed by 90%
Published on 07/25/2026 at 16:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The narrative surrounding Circus SE has unravelled with remarkable speed. On 16 July, the provider of robotic kitchen systems slashed its revenue guidance for fiscal 2026 from an original range of €44.0 million to €55.0 million down to just €5.2 million. At the same time, the company widened its expected EBITDA loss from €6.0 million to €8.0 million to roughly €17.0 million. The market reaction was brutal: shares lost about half their value in a single session, according to an EQS News announcement. This is no ordinary forecast tweak — it amounts to an admission that scaling the business model is proving far tougher than management suggested as recently as spring.
Analysts Pull the Trigger
The response from the analyst community was swift and severe. On 17 July, mwb research cut its price target from €46.00 to €8.40 and downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Speculative Buy” — a label that speaks volumes. Montega AG followed on 20 July, lowering its rating from “Buy” to “Hold” and slashing its price target even more aggressively, from €10.00 to €2.20. Both firms cited operational scaling difficulties and heightened financing risk as the drivers. What stands out is the unanimity of tone: this is no longer a debate about growth velocity but a fundamental question about whether the business model is viable in its current form.
An Insider Buy With Mixed Signals
Amid the carnage, Circus disclosed a directors’ dealing transaction: Chairman Dr. Jan-Christian Heins purchased 5,003 shares on 17 July at an average price of €2.15, for a total consideration of €10,758.25. On the surface, that reads like a vote of confidence from the top. But the sum should not be overstated — relative to Circus’s current market capitalisation of €52.31 million, the purchase is more symbolic than financially significant. The fact that the stock has since slipped below that buy-in level — closing Friday at €1.81, down 10.17% on the day — further dilutes the message. The RSI now sits at 15.0, signalling a deeply oversold condition, while Thursday saw a fresh 12-month low of €1.93 before Friday’s additional decline.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Circus?
Operational Progress Beneath the Turmoil
The story is not entirely without substance, however. On 16 July, Circus announced the operational launch of its robotic kitchen systems to supply the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian ground forces in the Kyiv region — the first deployment of the technology in an active conflict zone, according to dpa-AFX and company statements. Separately, the company appointed Christian Bauer as co-CEO and CFO, a move clearly aimed at reinforcing operational discipline and capital allocation after the forecast shock. At the end of April, Circus completed the acquisition of US-based Kitchen Robotics, including patents and software IP for a low six-figure sum, with the goal of advancing its US market entry into the second half of 2026. On the technical front, system availability for the CA-1 cooking robots improved from roughly 70% at the start of the year to over 90%, with 17 systems either in operation or integration. These developments show that the core technology is advancing — just far more slowly than management itself had anticipated.
A Tale of Two Narratives
Looking at the preliminary figures for 2025 puts the scale of the revision in perspective: Circus generated revenue of €1.5 million that year, up from €0.25 million the prior year, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of €15.3 million. The original 2026 forecast would have required a multiple of that revenue base — a target that clearly proved unsustainable. Over the past 30 days, the stock has shed 69.32% of its value.
What emerges is a company caught between two opposing storylines: genuine technological and operational progress on one side, and a catastrophic collapse of credibility around revenue and earnings targets on the other. The stock is technically oversold, which could fuel short-term bounces. But for the fundamental valuation, that matters little. The critical test will come when the new leadership under Christian Bauer must convince investors — at the annual general meeting on 20 August and the Baader Investment Conference on 21 September — that 17 installed systems can be turned into a scalable business. Until then, Circus remains a case where operational advances and financial reality are so far apart that every forecast demands extreme caution.
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