Citi Sees Q2 Profit Soaring to 12.4 Billion Yuan as BYD’s Hybrid Strength and Export Record Offset BEV Weakness
03.06.2026 - 20:51:29 | boerse-global.de
Citi’s analysts have set a nett profit range of 10.3 billion to 12.4 billion yuan for BYD’s second quarter, well above the market consensus of 8 billion to 9 billion yuan. The bullish call comes as the Chinese auto giant notched up a modest sales recovery in May – the first year-on-year gain in eight months – but investors remain unconvinced. The stock slipped 2.7% to €10.25 on Wednesday, surrendering most of the previous session’s 4.6% advance, and still trades nearly 78% below its 52?week high of €46.39.
BYD sold exactly 383,453 new?energy vehicles in May, edging past the 382,476 units delivered a year earlier. While the 0.3% uptick broke a painful streak of monthly declines, the headline number masks a crucial shift within the product mix. Battery electric vehicles fell to roughly 199,000 units from around 204,000 in May 2025, while plug?in hybrids climbed to about 178,000 from 173,000. The entire growth engine is now running on hybrids, a fact that carries implications for margins and battery demand that investors are watching closely.
The broader Chinese NEV market provides some tailwind. The China Passenger Car Association estimates wholesale volumes for passenger NEVs at 1.36 million units in May, up 12% from a year earlier. BYD commanded a 28% share of that wholesale pool with 377,000 units, more than double Geely’s 131,000 and far ahead of Tesla China’s roughly 86,000.
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Yet the year?to?date picture remains sobering. Through the first five months of 2026, BYD sold only 1.41 million vehicles – a drop of more than 20% compared with the same period last year. One strong month does not erase that deficit, and the market is waiting for June data, expected in early July, to see whether May was a genuine turning point.
A key reason for Citi’s confidence is BYD’s overseas performance. The company shipped a record 160,644 vehicles abroad in May, representing over 40% of total deliveries. International expansion is becoming a vital counterweight to the fiercely price?competitive domestic market, and BYD has set a full?year sales target of 3.5 million to 4 million units.
On the technology front, BYD unveiled the XUANJI A3 on 28 May – billed as China’s first 4?nanometre automotive chip. Designed to support driver?assistance systems and autonomous driving, the chip is a cornerstone of the new “God’s Eye” platform and the company’s “Full Damage Coverage” safety philosophy. Industry observers see it as a strategic bid to close the gap with global rivals in intelligent mobility, positioning high?performance computing as a differentiator in the increasingly crowded EV market.
The second?quarter earnings report is due in August. If Citi’s profit estimate proves accurate, it would be a significant vote of confidence in BYD’s ability to navigate a tough domestic landscape while scaling exports and pushing into higher?value technology. For now, the stock’s reluctance to rally suggests that only sustained evidence of recovery – not a single month’s respite – will sway the bears.
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