Commerzbank Escalates Fight Against UniCredit as It Raises Profit Target and Awaits ECB Signal
11.06.2026 - 14:06:11 | boerse-global.de
Commerzbank finds itself fighting on multiple fronts. The German lender has called in financial regulators over what it believes are secret side deals in UniCredit’s hostile takeover bid, even as it lifts its full-year profit forecast and braces for a pivotal European Central Bank decision that could reshape the interest-rate landscape.
Management in Frankfurt has handed the BaFin a growing dossier of evidence, pointing to an unusual pattern in the acceptance of UniCredit’s offer. The Italian bank reported a take-up rate of nearly 11% on 10 June 2026, but Commerzbank says not a single institutional investor has tendered its shares. Instead, almost all the stock submitted originates from parties directly connected to UniCredit. With the shares trading at €36.32 — roughly €2.30 above the bid price — any sale to UniCredit would lock in a loss for sellers, a fact that makes the acceptance figures all the more suspicious in management’s eyes.
The market for securities lending has caught Commerzbank’s attention as well. Volumes have surged more than tenfold since the takeover was announced, a pattern consistent with hidden compensation deals that would not be publicly disclosed. The bank is now feeding data to the BaFin on a rolling basis, and both the management board and the supervisory board remain firmly opposed to the offer, arguing that their standalone strategy delivers higher value with lower risk.
Meanwhile, the shareholder register is shifting. Bank of America raised its voting rights stake to 5.01% in early June, using a mix of shares and financial instruments to secure the position. UniCredit’s formal acceptance period runs until 16 June 2026, with a possible extension into early July. Against that backdrop, the stock has held steady near its highs, sitting less than 5% below the 52-week peak of €38.15.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
On the operational side, Commerzbank just delivered a mixed set of first-quarter numbers. Net interest income slipped slightly to €2.047 billion, just missing the analyst consensus of €2.06 billion, as lower policy rates at the Polish subsidiary mBank weighed on the figure. The domestic business, however, proved resilient. A strong performance in fee-based income helped push operating profit up 11% to €1.358 billion, and net profit after tax came in at €913 million.
Despite the headwind in lending revenues, the bank raised its annual outlook. It now expects net profit to reach at least €3.4 billion, up from the previous target of €3.2 billion, and also nudged its net interest income guidance higher. The share price has largely ignored the slowdown in the core interest business, closing Wednesday at €36.12 and staying comfortably above its 200-day moving average of €33.80. The relative strength index sits near 49, pointing to a neutral market with no clear directional bias.
Today’s ECB rate meeting in Frankfurt will provide the next major catalyst. The decision is due at 14:15, followed by updated macroeconomic projections half an hour later. A dovish tone could dampen rate expectations, directly squeezing the margin optimism that underpins Commerzbank’s revised targets. Worse, weak growth or inflation forecasts would pile fresh pressure on eurozone banking stocks. Conversely, a signal that the interest-rate environment will remain supportive would lend credibility to the bank’s ambitious profit goals.
Commerzbank at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For now, Commerzbank is betting that its own plan can deliver more than any takeover offer, and it is pulling every lever — from calling in the regulator to raising financial targets — to prove it. The next few days will test whether that bet holds.
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