Commerzbank’s Dividend Boost and UniCredit’s Near-Control Stake Push Berlin Toward the Table
Published on 07/18/2026 at 06:24 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
UniCredit has steadily built a voting stake in Commerzbank that now effectively gives the Italian lender de facto control — a threshold that has finally persuaded Berlin to shelve its long-standing resistance and prepare for formal negotiations. After the extended acceptance period for its takeover offer closed on 3 July, UniCredit reported that an additional 17.60% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered. Adding a directly held 26.77% and 3.22% via financial instruments, the Italian group commands 47.59% of the equity and 49.65% of the voting rights. The remaining regulatory approvals for transferring those rights have yet to clear, but the arithmetic already signals that a decisive shift in ownership is near.
The stock’s reaction has been mixed. On Friday, Commerzbank shares closed at €36.66, losing 3.25% on the day and sitting 6.43% below the 52-week high of €39.18 reached only on 14 July. That retreat reflects the nervousness that often accompanies moments of political clarity in a drawn-out saga. Over the past twelve months, however, the stock has still delivered a double-digit gain, lifted by takeover speculation and the bank’s own improving fundamentals.
What changed in Berlin was the arithmetic. Reports from Bloomberg and dpa indicate that Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is now drawing up conditions for talks with UniCredit, centering on safeguarding Commerzbank’s Mittelstand lending, preserving jobs in Frankfurt, and ensuring the bank retains a degree of autonomy. A concrete meeting date has not been set, but the policy U-turn is unmistakable. Merz had already signalled he would not block a merger; the new posture suggests the administration is prepared to negotiate terms rather than simply oppose.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Away from the takeover drama, Commerzbank has been laying out its independent ambitions. This year’s annual meeting approved a dividend of €1.10 per share for 2025, up from €0.65 a year earlier, and authorised a fresh buyback programme covering up to 10% of share capital. The bank has also lifted its net profit target for 2026 to at least €3.4 billion, up from an earlier goal of “above €3.2 billion”, and pledged to distribute virtually all earnings from 2026 to 2028 via dividends and buybacks. Under its “Momentum 2030” strategy, management aims to push the return on tangible equity to 21% by the end of the decade.
JPMorgan is taking a cautious line, rating Commerzbank “Neutral” while the political and regulatory picture around UniCredit remains unresolved. The next major catalyst is likely to be the bank’s second-quarter results on 6 August. Those numbers will test whether the operational momentum can hold despite months of takeover uncertainty, and whether the new financial targets rest on solid ground.
For now, shareholders are caught between two narratives. One points to a standalone bank with rising earnings and generous payouts. The other points to a powerful Italian shareholder that has already secured nearly half the votes and is pressing Berlino let the deal proceed. The coming weeks of negotiation between Rome, Berlin and Frankfurt will determine which story prevails.
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