Commerzbank's Premium Pricing Underscores Growing Faith in Independence as UniCredit Bid Struggles to Gain Traction
12.05.2026 - 16:23:30 | boerse-global.de
Commerzbank's shares are trading at €35.89, a discount of nearly nine euros below the currency value of UniCredit’s stock swap offer, which values each Commerzbank share at roughly €31.07. That gap — close to 14% — is more than just a mismatch between bid and market price. It reflects a market that is increasingly betting on the Frankfurt lender’s ability to go it alone, and the bank is feeding that narrative with a steady drumbeat of higher profit targets and a wall of political and operational defenses.
Deutsche Bank Research added its voice to the chorus on Monday, reiterating a "Buy" rating and a price target of €40 per share. That bullish call, coming from a fellow German institution, lends analytical heft to Commerzbank’s argument that it can deliver greater value without a foreign owner. The target implies roughly 11% upside from current levels and sits well above UniCredit’s indicative offer of 0.485 new shares per Commerzbank share.
The operational story backing that view is compelling. For the first quarter of 2026, Commerzbank booked a net profit of €913 million, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, while operating income rose 11% to €1.358 billion. Management has now lifted its full-year 2026 profit forecast to at least €3.4 billion, a €200 million upgrade from earlier guidance. By 2030, the bank aims to push net profit to €5.9 billion on revenue of €16.8 billion — numbers that frame the stand-alone strategy as a serious alternative to a takeover.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Commerzbank?
Central to that strategy is a carefully choreographed workforce plan. Commerzbank has struck a deal with trade union Verdi and its works council that effectively rules out compulsory redundancies for its roughly 39,000 employees. Instead, the bank plans to cut about 3,000 full-time positions by 2030 through natural attrition and an early-retirement program that includes a €50,000 bonus. The cost of the restructuring is estimated at €450 million. For UniCredit, the job guarantee complicates the usual synergy playbook, which relies heavily on cutting overlapping roles in IT, administration, and branch networks.
The bank’s medium-term roadmap, branded "Momentum 2030", targets a return on equity of around 17% by 2028, with an aspirational level of 21% further out. That sort of profitability would put Commerzbank on a par with many of Europe’s top-tier lenders and provides ammunition for the board to argue that shareholders should wait for the full formal statement — still pending — before making a decision on UniCredit’s approach.
Technically, the stock remains in strong shape despite a slight pullback. On a 30-day view, shares are up 3.46% and continue to trade comfortably above their 200-day moving average of €33.59. However, the relative strength index has climbed to 86.1, signaling that the rally may be overstretched in the short term after a 12-month gain of 37.5%.
Key dates are now lining up. The annual general meeting is scheduled for May 20, 2026, where shareholders will vote on a proposed dividend of €1.10 per share and a fresh authorization for share buybacks. UniCredit’s acceptance period has been extended until July 3, 2026, leaving roughly two months for Commerzbank to deliver its official, reasoned opinion on the offer. That document, when it appears, will crystallize the choice: take the Italian paper now, or bet on a home-grown strategy that keeps pushing the target higher.
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