Commerzbank’s Record Quarter Gives It Leverage as Berlin Signals a Green Light for UniCredit
Published on 07/28/2026 at 18:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The political landscape around Commerzbank’s future has shifted decisively. Berlin is no longer digging in its heels against UniCredit’s takeover ambitions, and the German lender has responded by dropping its own defensive posture. The result is a rapidly clearing path toward what could become one of the most consequential cross-border bank mergers in European history.
Commerzbank shares traded at €37.69 on Wednesday, up 0.45 percent and just a whisker below their 52-week high of €39.18, set in July. The stock has gained 3.80 percent since the start of the year, reflecting the mounting takeover premium baked into the price. At current levels, the shares stand well above UniCredit’s original offer value of roughly €32.50, signaling that investors now assign a high probability to a successful deal.
Berlin Shifts From Opposition to Negotiation
According to a Bloomberg report, the German government is abandoning its blanket rejection of UniCredit’s approach and is instead drawing up a list of demands for potential talks. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had already telegraphed this change of tack, arguing that shareholders — not politicians — should determine the bank’s fate.
The political U-turn removes one of the biggest obstacles that had hung over UniCredit’s campaign since it began in 2024. The federal government still holds about 12 percent of Commerzbank, a legacy of its bailout during the financial crisis roughly 15 years ago, but the resistance from Berlin is now visibly dissolving.
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UniCredit’s Grip Tightens to Nearly 50 Percent
UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel has reason for his growing confidence. As of the July 8 cutoff for the takeover process, the Italian bank directly controlled 44.37 percent of Commerzbank shares. When financial instruments and call options are added, that figure rises to approximately 47.6 percent of the capital and roughly 49.7 percent of voting rights — a level that typically commands a majority at shareholder meetings, given normal attendance rates.
During the final acceptance period for the offer, institutional investors overwhelmingly opted for the share swap. UniCredit secured 17.6 percent of Commerzbank’s free float through this mechanism, with institutional holders, banks, and funds supplying the lion’s share. Retail investors accounted for just two percent of that total.
Weidmann Extends an Olive Branch
Commerzbank’s supervisory board chairman Jens Weidmann has formally invited UniCredit to talks, marking a stark departure from the bank’s earlier resistance. The invitation acknowledges the new reality of the shareholder register, which gives UniCredit an effective blocking minority with voting power to match.
Weidmann enters these discussions from a position of relative strength. Commerzbank posted net income of over €800 million in the first quarter of 2026 — its strongest three-month performance in a decade — on record revenues exceeding €3 billion. That financial firepower bolsters the bank’s argument for its standalone value and gives Weidmann tangible ammunition at the negotiating table.
Orcel’s Pan-European Vision Takes Shape
Orcel has defended the strategic logic of the deal, arguing that absorbing Commerzbank and its Polish subsidiary mBank would transform UniCredit into a truly pan-European institution. He has dismissed concerns about negative fallout for the German lender.
The Commerzbank bid is part of a broader consolidation wave sweeping European banking. Intesa Sanpaolo is simultaneously pursuing a takeover of Monte dei Paschi in Italy, while the Italian financial sector posted a 13.8 percent return on equity for 2025. In this environment, UniCredit’s move on Commerzbank is increasingly seen as a blueprint for further cross-border tie-ups within the eurozone.
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LBBW chief Rainer Neske has voiced support for the deal, calling it a necessary step for European banking competitiveness, while also urging structural reforms in Germany, particularly around working hours.
What Comes Next
A potential completion of the transaction is currently targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026. For that to happen, Berlin’s emerging list of demands will need to find common ground with Orcel’s ambitions, and Weidmann’s invitation must translate into substantive negotiations.
The market is watching closely. With political headwinds fading and UniCredit’s grip on the shareholder register tightening by the week, the question is no longer whether a deal will happen, but on what terms — and how quickly both sides can get there.
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