Commerzbank Throws Down the Gauntlet: Record Profit and a 2030 Roadmap to Fend Off UniCredit
08.05.2026 - 15:11:42 | boerse-global.de
Frankfurt’s second-largest lender has delivered its strongest quarterly performance in 15 years, using the moment to unveil an ambitious long-term strategy that reads as a direct rebuttal to Milan’s creeping advance. The message is unmistakable: Commerzbank believes it is worth more on its own than as part of any Italian-led combination.
Net profit for the first three months of 2026 came in at €913 million, roughly 10% above the year-ago figure and comfortably ahead of the consensus estimate of €868 million. Operating profit rose 11% to €1.36 billion, powered by a 9% jump in fee and commission income to €1.1 billion. The return on equity improved to 12.7%, up from 11.1% in the same period last year.
The headline numbers, however, were merely the prelude. Management used the results to unveil “Momentum 2030,” a medium-term plan that sets a net profit target of at least €3.4 billion for the current year — €200 million higher than the previous guidance. By 2028, the bank expects to generate €4.6 billion in net income, rising to €5.9 billion by the end of the decade, with a return on equity of around 21%.
To get there, Commerzbank will shed another 3,000 full-time positions by 2030, partly as artificial intelligence takes over more tasks. This follows the 3,900 job cuts announced in February 2025. The bank’s works council, backed by the Verdi union, has indicated that compulsory redundancies are effectively off the table under the existing transformation agreement.
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The timing of the announcement was no accident. UniCredit now holds close to 30% of Commerzbank’s shares and launched a formal all-stock exchange offer at the start of the week. Chief executive Bettina Orlopp rejected the bid outright, arguing it “significantly undervalues” the bank. The offer runs until June 16, with UniCredit seeking to increase its stake through a share swap.
Commerzbank shares traded at €35.80 on Thursday, down 1.5% on the day, but still up roughly 48% over the past 12 months. The stock remains about 4% below its 52-week high of €37.75. Technical indicators suggest the equity is overbought in the near term, with the relative strength index above 90. Analyst price targets range from €34 to €44.
The German government, which still holds a residual stake following the bank’s post-financial-crisis bailout, has made clear it opposes a hostile takeover. Berlin has previously signalled it could increase its holding to block any unwanted combination.
Commerzbank has left the door open to talks — but only on its own terms. Any deal would require a “meaningful premium” and a structure that respects the bank’s existing business model, according to people familiar with the board’s thinking. The higher profit targets are designed to convince investors that the stand-alone path offers superior returns.
A day before Commerzbank’s presentation, UniCredit added another layer of intrigue by announcing plans to sell part of its Russia operations. The discount on that disposal is expected to be between €3 billion and €3.3 billion, though the Italian lender insists its 2028-2030 profit targets remain unaffected.
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The next key date for Commerzbank shareholders is May 20, when the annual general meeting takes place in Wiesbaden. On the agenda is a proposed dividend of €1.10 per share for the 2025 financial year, up from €0.65 a year earlier, with payment scheduled for May 26.
For now, the Frankfurt-based lender has made its case. Whether investors buy the stand-alone story over UniCredit’s cash-and-shares offer will become clearer over the next six weeks.
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