D-Wave Quantum: A $100 Million Government Pledge and a Potential Short Squeeze Battle a Bearish Chart
Published on 07/10/2026 at 17:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The path for D-Wave Quantum has become a study in contrasts. The stock, trading Friday at €18.05, has shed nearly 25% since the start of the year and sits more than half below its 52-week high of €38.48 from October. Yet buried under the selling pressure are two forces that could reverse the narrative: a pending $100 million infusion from the U.S. government and a short interest level that has historically preceded sharp bounces.
The government deal, tied to the CHIPS and Science Act, remains in limbo. A letter of intent has been signed, committing $100 million in exchange for equity, but the final terms – both the size and structure – are still being hammered out. That ambiguity has kept a cloud over the stock. The primary risk for existing shareholders is dilution: if the terms are unfavorable or delayed, the company may be forced to issue new shares to raise capital, eating into current holdings. The alternative, a clean agreement at attractive conditions, would bolster the balance sheet without tapping public markets.
On the commercial front, the outlook is much brighter. D-Wave’s new bookings surged to $33.4 million in the first quarter of 2026, fueled by two large orders from research and industry. The remaining performance obligations also rose sharply. Meanwhile, the company was named a "Leader" in IDC's Worldwide Quantum Computing 2026 Vendor Assessment, the only firm alongside one other to achieve that distinction. IDC highlighted the Leap cloud platform and the hybrid solvers capable of tackling optimization problems with up to two million variables in under a second. Customer submissions have now topped 200 million problems, and usage of the Advantage2 platform jumped 314% year-over-year.
The revenue picture, however, is messy. Reported sales in the first quarter fell 81%, but that is purely a mechanical effect: a year-ago quarter included a large system sale that did not repeat. The underlying recurring revenue stream is growing, but the headline number has fed the bear case. That bear case is further fueled by an extreme valuation – some estimates put the price-to-sales ratio north of 790 – and an operating model that still burns cash heavily. Analyst firm Spark notes that while D-Wave has strong bookings, robust backlog, and low debt, it also carries high losses, volatile revenue, and a persistent cash drain.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying D-Wave Quantum?
The technical picture has been equally punishing. The stock has logged five consecutive losing sessions and recently made a one-month low in dollar terms. It now trades about 13% below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages (the latter at €20.60). The relative strength index sits at 40.6, showing clear downside momentum but not yet oversold. Annualized volatility is running near 89%, underscoring the market’s jittery response to any news.
Yet that volatility, combined with a massive short position, creates a setup that technicians are watching closely. With 55.75 million shares sold short – representing 15.54% of the free float – short sellers would need roughly two days of average volume to cover. Rocky White, senior analyst at Schaeffer's, points out that the stock is currently trading within 0.75 times its average range around the 100-day moving average, after having spent at least 80% of the prior two weeks and 80% of the past 42 trading days above that line. That pattern has occurred only five times in the last decade, and in 60% of those instances the stock was higher a month later, averaging a gain of 28%. Applied to today’s dollar price, that would translate into a move back toward $26.
The broader market backdrop remains hostile to speculative tech. On July 7, the entire quantum computing sector fell sharply – IonQ, Rigetti, Quantum Computing, and Infleqtion all slid, with D-Wave dropping 6.65% that day. There was no company-specific catalyst; the moves appeared to be risk-off rotation from AI and semiconductor names, combined with profit-taking after a strong sector rally. D-Wave’s direction in the near term will thus depend more on sentiment toward high-growth, loss-making names than on its own operational milestones.
D-Wave Quantum at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The story now hinges on two concrete catalysts. First, the final terms from the Commerce Department – whether the $100 million becomes a binding, shareholder-friendly deal or a drawn-out negotiation. Second, the next quarterly report, which must show whether the record booking pace is sustainable or a one-off. The analyst consensus price target of €32.68 offers theoretical upside of more than 80%, but a failure on either front could send the stock back toward its 52-week low of €11.12. With volatility at 89% and a short squeeze on the table, D-Wave is a binary bet where the stakes could not be higher.
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D-Wave Quantum Stock: New Analysis - 10 July
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