Deutsche Telekom: Buyback Buffer Meets T-Mobile Headwinds Ahead of August 6 Scorecard
Published on 07/28/2026 at 12:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The shares of Deutsche Telekom have clawed back some ground this week, rising 1.93 percent to €27.44 on Tuesday, as investors look past a weekend network outage at its US subsidiary and fix their gaze on the company’s second-quarter earnings release on August 6. The recovery extends a 2.77 percent gain from the prior week, though the stock still sits roughly 20 percent below its 52-week high of €34.35 reached in February.
T-Mobile US suffered a nationwide service disruption on Monday that triggered more than 60,000 outage reports at its peak, forcing some customers to rely on emergency mode before services were restored. The US-listed shares fell 1.6 percent on the day. Yet the parent company’s stock has brushed off the incident, supported by a steady buyback program and solid underlying fundamentals in its domestic fiber business.
Between July 20 and July 24, Deutsche Telekom repurchased 1,353,640 of its own shares at a weighted average price of €26.70. Since the start of July, the buyback tally has exceeded 5 million shares, providing a structural demand anchor that helps insulate the stock from transient negative headlines.
Analysts Trim Targets but Hold the Line on Ratings
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Despite the recent price recovery, several major banks have pared back their price targets for both Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile US. JPMorgan lowered its target for the German parent from €40 to €38, while maintaining an “Overweight” rating, citing updated estimates for the US unit. Deutsche Bank Research had already cut its target from €42 to €40 a week earlier, flagging rising competition from satellite internet providers such as Starlink and the capital demands of AI-related investments.
For T-Mobile US itself, the target reductions were more pronounced. UBS cut its price objective from $255 to $235 but kept a “Buy” rating. The DZ Bank trimmed its fair value from $250 to $240, also sticking with a “Buy” recommendation. Notably, every house that revised its numbers downward maintained a positive stance on the shares — a signal that the competitive pressures are denting near-term estimates without undermining the long-term thesis.
T-Mobile’s Mixed Quarter Provides the Context
The analyst adjustments followed T-Mobile US’s second-quarter results released on July 23. Revenue rose nearly 8 percent to $22.79 billion, while adjusted EBITDA of $9.54 billion beat expectations. The company also raised its 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, up from the prior $18.1 billion to $18.7 billion.
The blemish came in customer growth. Net additions for postpaid phone contracts fell 13 percent to 277,000 new subscribers — a slowdown that likely contributed to the downward target revisions, even as the headline financials impressed.
Germany’s Fiber Momentum vs. US Exposure Risk
On home turf, Deutsche Telekom’s fiber rollout continues to gain traction. The company added 240,000 new fiber connections in June alone. By contrast, rival Vodafone lost 85,000 mobile and 98,000 broadband customers in Germany over the same period, underscoring the incumbent’s widening lead in the domestic market.
The central question for investors is whether that German strength can offset any weakness emanating from the US. T-Mobile US has already begun marketing mobile offerings and network optimizations tied to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North America, a potential catalyst. But the recent network outage and softening subscriber growth add uncertainty to the outlook.
The Chart Picture: Recovery Underway, But Risks Remain
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
From a technical perspective, the stock has pushed back above its 50-day moving average of €27.12, a bullish near-term signal. The relative strength index sits at 56.3, leaving room for further upside before the stock becomes overbought. If the shares hold above the 50-day line, a test of the resistance zone around €28.60 is plausible — particularly if the August 6 earnings report delivers a positive surprise.
Yet the 200-day moving average at €28.64 remains a stubborn ceiling, and the stock still trades 4.6 percent below that level. On a 12-month basis, Deutsche Telekom shares are down 12.3 percent. A disappointing Q2 report could trigger a pullback toward the 52-week low of €23.54, set in late June — a level just 16 percent below Tuesday’s close.
What to Watch on August 6
Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of €0.56 for the second quarter, up from €0.54 a year earlier, on group revenue of €29.95 billion — a 4.46 percent increase. Two metrics will likely determine the market’s reaction: the operating margin in the German fiber business and the adjusted EBITDA guidance for T-Mobile US.
The buyback program provides a floor, the fiber business offers momentum, and the US unit supplies both upside potential and downside risk. The August 6 report will show which force prevails.
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Deutsche Telekom Stock: New Analysis - 28 July
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