Deutsche Telekom: Buyback Momentum and Fiber Growth Test T-Mobile's Shadow
Published on 07/28/2026 at 19:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Deutsche Telekom shares have clawed back nearly 11 percent over the past 30 trading days, reaching €27.56 on Tuesday — a recovery that has pushed the stock above its 50-day moving average of €27.12. Yet the gap to the February 52-week high of €34.35 remains a yawning 20 percent, and the 200-day line at €28.64 still sits 4.6 percent above the current price, signaling that the longer-term downtrend is far from broken.
The rally has been buttressed by a steady stream of share buybacks. Between July 20 and July 24 alone, the company repurchased roughly 1.35 million of its own shares, bringing the July total to more than five million. These purchases effectively absorb supply from the market, creating a cushion against selling pressure that has helped stabilize the stock during a period of mixed sentiment.
On the operational front, the domestic business continues to deliver. Deutsche Telekom added 240,000 new fiber-optic connections in June, widening its lead in the German broadband market. By contrast, rival Vodafone lost 85,000 mobile and 98,000 broadband customers in the same period, underscoring the widening gap between the Bonn-based incumbent and its competitors.
Analyst Caution Clouds T-Mobile's Strong Quarter
The primary headwind remains the US subsidiary. JPMorgan cut its price target for Deutsche Telekom from €40 to €38 on Monday, maintaining an Overweight rating but citing reduced expectations for T-Mobile US following its second-quarter report. UBS simultaneously lowered its T-Mobile US target from $255 to $235, also keeping a Buy recommendation.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
The analyst moves appear counterintuitive given the numbers T-Mobile US posted on Thursday. The US arm added 277,000 net contract customers in the second quarter, revenue rose 7.9 percent to $22.8 billion, and adjusted operating profit climbed 11.7 percent to $9.5 billion. Management even raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow guidance to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, up from the prior $18.1 billion to $18.7 billion.
Yet beneath the headline strength, analysts appear to be recalibrating their valuation assumptions for the US business. The dollar exchange rate adds another layer of complexity: the rate stood at 1.139 on June 30, down from 1.150 at the end of March, a shift that can meaningfully affect the group's balance sheet given its substantial dollar-denominated debt.
Adding to the uncertainty, reports emerged on July 27 of network outages at T-Mobile US. Whether these disruptions will translate into meaningful customer churn remains an open question, but they inject an element of operational risk into an otherwise solid narrative.
Insider Signal and World Cup Rights
Board member Rodrigo Francisco Diehl provided a vote of confidence on July 3, purchasing 2,999 shares at prices around €24.00 — well below the current level. The timing suggests insider conviction that the stock's June trough near €23.54 represented an attractive entry point.
Separately, Deutsche Telekom secured the German TV broadcasting rights for the 2030 FIFA World Cup on July 20, to be distributed via its MagentaTV platform. While the immediate financial impact on near-term quarters is limited, the deal could support subscriber growth and advertising revenue over the medium term.
The August 6 Scorecard
All eyes now turn to August 6, when Deutsche Telekom releases its second-quarter and first-half results. The analyst consensus calls for earnings per share of $0.647 on quarterly revenue of $34.43 billion, compared with $0.610 in the year-ago period. Two metrics will carry particular weight: the operating margin in the German fiber business and the adjusted EBITDA outlook for T-Mobile US.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Should the numbers meet or beat expectations, the stock could test the resistance zone around €28.60 — the level of the 200-day moving average and a natural target for the current rally. The relative strength index at 56.3 leaves room for further upside before hitting overbought territory.
A miss, however, would expose the stock to a retest of the €27 support level, with the 52-week low of €23.54 looming as the next major downside reference point — just 16 percent below Tuesday's close. The T-Mobile US dividend adds a minor catalyst: the ex-date for the next quarterly payout of $1.02 per share falls on August 28, payable September 10.
For now, Deutsche Telekom sits at a crossroads where domestic operational strength and buyback support are being weighed against transatlantic headwinds and cautious analyst forecasts. The August 6 report will determine which force prevails.
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