Deutsche Telekom’s Buyback Momentum Faces a Reality Check From T-Mobile’s Subscriber Warning
Published on 07/26/2026 at 16:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The contrast between Deutsche Telekom’s steady buyback machine and the turbulence emanating from its US subsidiary could hardly be starker. While the Bonn-based group pressed ahead with its €560 million share repurchase programme last week, T-Mobile US sent a jolt through the market that briefly dragged the parent company’s stock down by 2.5 per cent on Thursday.
The sell-off in T-Mobile US was triggered by second-quarter results that, on the surface, looked robust. The American wireless carrier posted earnings per share of $2.99, comfortably beating the $2.58 consensus estimate. But a revenue miss — $22.79 billion against expectations of $22.94 billion — was compounded by management’s warning of a temporarily elevated churn rate in the third quarter. Investors punished the stock heavily for that subscriber outlook, sending it down roughly 11 per cent in a single session.
Deutsche Telekom’s shares, however, staged a partial recovery by Friday’s close, ending the week at €26.45 with a 1.54 per cent gain on the day. That still left the stock nursing a 2.04 per cent weekly decline and sitting about 2.73 per cent below its 50-day moving average of €27.19 — a sign the equity is stuck in a sideways drift rather than building any clear directional momentum.
The parent company’s buyback programme, meanwhile, rolled on without interruption. Between 13 and 17 July, Deutsche Telekom acquired 1,351,740 of its own shares at a weighted average price of €26.73, bringing the total repurchased since the start of the third tranche on 1 July to 3,673,275 shares. That tranche, with a maximum volume of €560 million, is scheduled to run until 30 September. For investors, the message is one of continuity: the group is sticking to its capital return plan regardless of short-term volatility across the Atlantic.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Adding to the mixed signals, Deutsche Bank analyst Robert Grindle trimmed his price target on Deutsche Telekom from €42.00 to €40.00 on Tuesday, while maintaining a “Buy” rating. He cited the risk of a fading competitive edge against satellite internet services such as Starlink, as well as new AI initiatives from rivals that could pressure the company’s traditional business model. Even at the reduced target, the analyst’s view implies significant upside from the current share price, which remains 23 per cent below its 52-week high of €34.35 and has fallen 4.82 per cent since the start of the year.
Inside the company, confidence appears intact. Board member Rodrigo Francisco Diehl purchased 2,999 shares at €24.64 in early July — a transaction that management-watchers often interpret as a vote of confidence, particularly when executed during a period of weaker price action.
Operationally, the group continues to expand its network infrastructure. A new mobile site went live in Darmstadt on Friday, designed to boost 4G and 5G capacity in the city. And on the content side, MagentaTV recorded a reach of over 200 million viewers during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with new subscriptions during the tournament running at double the rate seen during EURO 2024. That success underscores the importance of major sporting events for the company’s streaming and pay-TV business, though the financial impact will only become visible in coming quarters.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
T-Mobile US also raised its full-year guidance for adjusted free cash flow to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, up from the previous $18.1 billion to $18.7 billion, while reaffirming its target for postpaid net customer additions of 0.95 million to 1.05 million. The cash flow upgrade signals underlying operational strength, but it was not enough to dispel the market’s focus on the churn warning.
All eyes now turn to 6 August, when Deutsche Telekom publishes its second-quarter and first-half results. The first-quarter numbers already showed some strain, with earnings per share falling to €0.42 from €0.58 a year earlier, while revenue came in at €29.87 billion. The upcoming report will reveal whether the profit decline has stabilised — and whether the churn concerns from the US are starting to show up in the group’s consolidated figures. Until then, the stock remains caught between the supportive signals from Bonn’s buyback programme and the uncertainty emanating from across the Atlantic.
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