Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile’s EBITDA Surge Masks a Subscriber Slowdown
Published on 07/26/2026 at 20:41 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The Deutsche Telekom narrative is increasingly a tale of two halves. While the Bonn-based telecom giant reaffirmed its full-year guidance last week — targeting adjusted EBITDA of roughly €47.5 billion and free cash flow of about €19.8 billion — the market’s focus has sharpened on a subtle but significant deceleration at its crown jewel, T-Mobile US.
T-Mobile US delivered a robust second-quarter performance on Wednesday, with revenue climbing 7.9% to $22.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA jumping 11.7% to $9.5 billion. The US subsidiary also raised its full-year adjusted free cash flow forecast to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion. Yet beneath those headline numbers, a warning light flickered: net postpaid customer additions came in at 277,000 for the quarter, a 13% drop from the same period a year earlier. The growth engine is still running, but it has lost some of its former horsepower.
That deceleration has not gone unnoticed on the charts. Deutsche Telekom’s stock closed Friday at €26.45, up 1.54% on the day but still nursing a weekly loss of 2.04%. The shares remain 2.73% below their 50-day moving average of €27.19, and the distance to the 52-week high of €34.35 now stands at roughly 23%. A technical analysis recently flashed a long signal, suggesting some buying interest, but the broader picture remains murky — the stock is still closer to its 52-week low of €23.54 than to its peak.
Analyst Divergence and a Pre-Earnings Trim
The mixed signals have produced a split on the Street. Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on the stock last Tuesday, though it trimmed its price target from €42 to €40, citing more cautious assumptions about future earnings momentum. Crucially, that downgrade came before T-Mobile’s quarterly release, meaning it was not a reaction to the subscriber slowdown. The bank’s revised target still implies significant upside from current levels, but other voices are more cautious: one ranking service recently downgraded the stock, underscoring the tension between fundamental optimism and technical caution.
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Meanwhile, T-Mobile US itself faces a mixed analyst backdrop. Benchmark cut its price target on the US unit to $280, even as a separate study affirmed that T-Mobile still operates the best 5G network among its peers. That competitive advantage supports the long-term investment case, but it has not insulated the subsidiary’s stock from a recent 11% pullback — a decline that has since partially reversed.
Buybacks as a Backstop
Against this uncertain backdrop, Deutsche Telekom continues to deploy its buyback programme as a steadying force. Between July 13 and 17, the company repurchased 1,351,740 of its own shares on Xetra at a weighted average price of roughly €26.73. Such ongoing purchases tend to underpin demand and signal management’s conviction that the stock is undervalued — a useful buffer when sentiment is fragile.
A Leadership Compensation Subplot
Adding a layer of governance chatter to the mix, the compensation package for new T-Mobile US CEO Srini Gopalan has drawn criticism from some large shareholders. Reports indicate his pay rose significantly following his move from the German headquarters to the US. While the issue has no direct impact on operating metrics, it adds a note of friction to the investor relations narrative at a time when the market is already parsing mixed data.
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What’s Next
All eyes now turn to August 6, when Deutsche Telekom reports its own second-quarter results. The company has already posted adjusted earnings per share of €0.42 for the first quarter, and the €1.00 per share dividend for fiscal 2025 was paid out in April. The upcoming report will reveal whether the strong US numbers and the reaffirmed group targets translate into clean consolidated figures — or whether the subscriber slowdown at T-Mobile begins to show up in the parent company’s metrics.
For now, Deutsche Telekom remains a stock caught between a robust buyback programme, a still-growing US cash cow, and the technical reality of a share price that has yet to reclaim its 50-day average. The next few weeks will determine whether the bulls or the bears have the stronger case.
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