Deutsche Telekom: T-Mobile’s EBITDA Surge Puts a Floor Under the Share Price
Published on 07/27/2026 at 08:12 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A hammer candlestick pattern on Friday and a blockbuster earnings report from T-Mobile US have given Deutsche Telekom’s stock a much-needed lift, even as the broader picture remains clouded by currency headwinds and a steep year-to-date decline.
The Bonn-based telecoms giant closed the week at €26.45, up 1.54% on the day. That modest gain belies a more significant technical development: the formation of a hammer pattern, which chartists often interpret as the exhaustion of selling pressure. The stock also reclaimed its 20-day moving average near €25.95, a small but symbolically important step. The relative strength index sits at 49.3, squarely in neutral territory, leaving room for further upside as long as support around €25.92 holds.
Still, the longer-term picture is sobering. The share remains 23% below its February 52-week high of €34.35 and has shed roughly 15% over the past twelve months. To regain its 200-day moving average of €28.66, it would need to rally another 7.7%.
T-Mobile’s Cash Machine
The catalyst for Friday’s bounce came from across the Atlantic. T-Mobile US, in which Deutsche Telekom holds a controlling stake, reported quarterly results that underscored its role as the group’s growth engine. Revenue climbed 7.9% to $22.8 billion, while EBITDA surged 11.7% to $9.5 billion. Even more consequential for the parent company’s dividend and debt-reduction plans, T-Mobile raised its full-year free cash flow guidance to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
The only blemish was a dip in postpaid phone net additions to 277,000, below last year’s pace. But the sheer profitability of the US operation more than compensated, reinforcing expectations that Deutsche Telekom can sustain its dividend trajectory and buyback programme.
Buybacks and a Ratings Upgrade
The group has been putting its money where its mouth is. Between 13 and 17 July, it repurchased roughly 1.35 million of its own shares at an average price of €26.73 — a signal that management sees value at current levels. Those buybacks complement the proposed dividend of €1.00 per share for 2025, an 11% increase from the prior year, and a $2 billion buyback programme earmarked for 2026.
The financial community has taken note. Fitch Ratings upgraded Deutsche Telekom’s creditworthiness to ‘A-’, citing improved financial flexibility thanks to the strong US subsidiary. Deutsche Bank, meanwhile, trimmed its price target from €42 to €40 but maintained a ‘Buy’ rating.
The Dollar Drag
Yet the single biggest headwind remains the weak US dollar. The greenback’s depreciation cost the group an estimated €0.6 billion in earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone. That currency effect, combined with intense competition in the German market and a still-substantial net debt pile, means investors cannot afford to be complacent.
Deutsche Telekom at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
For the full year 2025, Deutsche Telekom reported organic revenue growth of 4.2% and adjusted EBITDA of roughly €44 billion. Management has guided for EBITDA of around €47.4 billion in 2026 and free cash flow of approximately €19.8 billion.
What to Watch
All eyes now turn to 6 August 2026, when the company publishes its complete half-year results. The market will be looking for clarity on how the dollar’s trajectory and T-Mobile’s cash flow momentum are shaping the group’s balance sheet. If the €25.92 support level holds, the current recovery could gather pace. If it breaks, the stock may test lower ground before the next catalyst arrives.
Ad
Deutsche Telekom Stock: New Analysis - 27 July
Fresh Deutsche Telekom information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
Disclaimer regarding our articles: No investment advice, no buy or sell recommendation. Information on prices, companies, and markets is provided without guarantee; changes are possible at any time. Stock market transactions can lead to substantial losses. Our articles are created and reviewed in whole or in part automatically with the support of AI.
