DroneShield's Record Revenue and European Build-Up Can't Shake Off ASIC Probe and Dilution Fears
28.06.2026 - 14:46:42 | boerse-global.de
The company is pushing ahead with a sweeping strategic overhaul — shifting to a software subscription model, opening a European headquarters in Amsterdam, and securing a contract to protect Kansas City's airspace during the 2026 World Cup. Yet investors have punished the stock relentlessly: down 65% from its October 2024 high of €3.65, with a further 9% slide on Friday to €1.28. Over the past month alone, the shares have shed roughly a third of their value.
The sell-off comes as a cloud of regulatory uncertainty hangs over the drone-countermeasures specialist. Australia's securities watchdog, ASIC, has been reviewing company disclosures and trading activity since May, though no formal allegations have been made. Simultaneously, the management team has been diluting existing shareholders: the total share count rose 43% over the past year, and more than 800,000 new shares were issued in mid-June. That combination — a regulatory probe plus ongoing capital raisings — has kept sentiment deeply negative.
Underpinning the bullish thesis, however, is an operational performance that looks almost contradictory. First-quarter revenue for the 2026 fiscal year surged 121% to A$74 million, and the company already holds A$171 million in committed revenue for the full year. Its sales pipeline exceeds 300 projects with a combined potential value of A$2.2 billion. In early June, DroneShield announced a major US order for mobile drone-defence systems.
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The European expansion is gathering pace too. A new headquarters and production facility in Amsterdam is now operational, and the company launched a supply-chain initiative in Poland to support rising European demand. To bolster its military and government relationships, Konteradmiral Lee Goddard — a three-decade veteran of defence and national security — will join the board on July 1.
Management is also steering the business away from one-off hardware sales and toward a recurring software-as-a-service model. The target is to have 30% of revenue coming from subscriptions by 2030, a transition the board says marks the shift from early pilot programmes to established procurement cycles.
Technically, the stock looks deeply oversold. The relative strength index has fallen to 19.9, a level that historically has preceded recoveries. Yet with the ASIC probe unresolved and dilution still weighing on the register, near-term sentiment remains fragile. The management team continues to stand by its long-range goal of reaching A$1 billion in annual revenue in the coming years — a target that, for now, seems a world away from the price action.
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