Expanded GTP Pact Locks in $630M in Added Revenue for Almonty as Analyst Lifts Price Target
Published on 07/21/2026 at 06:14 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Almonty Industries has significantly deepened its ties with US defence supply chain partner Global Tungsten & Powders (GTP), extending a tungsten concentrate offtake agreement for the Sangdong mine in South Korea by six additional years and boosting both volume and pricing. The enhanced terms, announced in mid-July, run for 21 years and are expected to generate roughly $630 million in incremental revenue over the contract’s life, according to Sphene Capital.
The Canadian-listed miner, which also voluntarily moved to delist from the Toronto Stock Exchange this week, saw its shares close at C$19.45 on Monday — a modest 1.04% gain. Despite the contract’s scale and the strategic implications, the stock has yet to recover from a sharp correction that has left it trading more than 41% below its April high of C$33.35.
Contract Expansion Anchors Phase I Output
The updated agreement with GTP, a key processor for the US military-industrial base, covers roughly 90% of Sangdong’s planned Phase I production. The volume has been increased by 40% to 4.41 million metric tonne units (MTU), while the price per unit has improved by about 6.3%. Annual revenue tied to the contract is now projected at around $490 million — at least $30 million more than under the previous terms, based on current APT prices.
The mine’s processing plant began operations on July 1, meaning the expanded offtake structure kicks in immediately as production ramps up. Phase II of Sangdong is not covered by the new agreement.
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Analyst Sees 102% Upside Despite Recent Weakness
Sphene Capital responded to the news by reaffirming its buy rating and lifting its price target on Almonty to C$38.90 from C$37.40. At the analyst’s reference price of C$19.25, that target implies an upside of more than 102%. The upgrade was driven by the combination of higher tonnage, better pricing, and the extended 21-year duration, which guarantees a minimum annual offtake of 210,000 MTU.
Over the full contract period, Sphene calculates the additional revenue at roughly $630 million — a figure that underscores the deal’s materiality for a company with a market capitalisation below C$500 million.
Tungsten’s Strategic Spotlight Brightens
The expansion comes at a time when tungsten is gaining urgency as a critical mineral. China controls an estimated 85% of global supply, pushing Western buyers and investors to seek alternatives. That dynamic was underscored recently when Australian billionaire Andrew Forrest, through his investment vehicle Wonongarra, acquired the entire 16.8% stake in tungsten producer EQ Resources that Oaktree Capital Management had held. The deal was valued at roughly A$189.7 million.
Almonty’s Sangdong mine in South Korea and its existing Panasqueira operation in Portugal, alongside development projects in Spain and the US, position it as a non-Chinese source of conflict-free tungsten — a pitch that resonates with defence and industrial customers alike.
Stock Consolidates After a Triple-Digit Run
While the contract news is structurally positive, the share price has failed to gain traction. The 30-day performance shows a decline of more than 25%, and the stock sits well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. But the longer view puts the pullback in perspective: over the past twelve months, Almonty has still gained more than 214%.
Almonty at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
The voluntary delisting from the TSX, effective this week, is being framed as a move to concentrate trading liquidity on the NASDAQ, where institutional US capital is more accessible. The shares remain listed on the Australian ASX, the OTCQX in the US, and the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The operational base — Sangdong, Panasqueira, and the development pipeline — remains unchanged.
The real question for investors is whether the market will reprice Almonty on the back of a blue-chip offtake contract that locks in revenue visibility for two decades, or whether the current consolidation phase will persist until broader sentiment shifts.
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