From $63 to $800: The Extraordinary Range of SpaceX Price Targets as Stock Tumbles 35%
Published on 07/18/2026 at 23:01 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The question of what SpaceX is worth has rarely sparked such stark disagreement on Wall Street. One analyst sees the stock at a paltry $63, another at $800 — and the chasm between them has only widened as the company’s shares shed more than a third of their value in a single month. With the stock closing Friday at €108.40 ($122.12), barely a percentage point above its 52-week low of €107.34, the market is pricing in fresh uncertainty after a high-profile rocket failure and mounting pressure from short sellers.
That failure came on July 16, when SpaceX aborted the 13th test flight of its Starship system at the last second. Four Raptor engines on the booster failed to ignite at T-0, triggering an automatic abort command. CEO Elon Musk confirmed the ignition fault, and the company now plans to replace two of the affected engines before trying again on Monday, July 20. The flight was meant to be the first test of the upgraded Starship V3 — a vehicle on which NASA depends for its Artemis IV lunar landing, targeted for 2028. Success rates for Starship tests so far stand at 58%, with seven of twelve flights ending in full or partial success.
The abort accelerated a sell-off that had already pushed SpaceX stock below its June initial public offering price of $135. Since debuting on June 12, the stock has lost nearly 35% in 30 days, wiping out much of the IPO euphoria. At its peak on June 16, the company was valued at $2.64 trillion; that figure has since shrunk to roughly $1.63 trillion, a loss of about $1 trillion. Elon Musk, as a result, has lost his trillionaire status on paper, and SpaceX slid from the fourth to the ninth most valuable publicly traded company.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Behind the headline drop lies a drumbeat of bearish signals. Short interest in the stock has climbed to around 30% of the free float, and short sellers have already booked $4 billion in paper profits. Adding to the overhang: a looming lock-up expiration expected in early August, when around 900 million restricted shares become eligible for trading following the release of second-quarter earnings. The bond market is also flashing caution — a 30-year SpaceX bond has seen its yield rise from 6.7% to 7.4%, pushing the price down to 91% of par, while credit default swaps widened to 158 basis points. That bond was part of a $25 billion issuance that accompanied the IPO.
For supporters, the bull case still rests on Starlink. The satellite-internet business generated roughly $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, with an EBITDA margin of 63% and more than 10 million subscribers. Critics counter that SpaceX itself posted a net loss of $4.9 billion last year and that even after the sell-off, the stock trades at about 100 times sales — a valuation that demands near-flawless execution.
Analyst ratings reflect that divide. Morningstar pegs fair value at just $63, well below the current price. MoffettNathanson takes a neutral stance with a $131 target. At the other extreme, Raymond James rates the stock a strong buy with an $800 target. The consensus among analysts tracked is $235.34, with roughly 80% recommending a buy. Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers publicly contextualized the market’s reaction to the failed test flight without calling the investment thesis into question, underscoring that the fundamental debate remains unresolved.
The next Starship attempt on Monday will offer an early test of whether the engine swap resolves the technical issue. For now, the divergent views on SpaceX’s true worth — from deep bearishness to outright conviction — are playing out in a stock that has lost more than $1 trillion in value and is staring at its biggest near-term catalyst since going public.
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