Fujikura’s Long-Distance Bet: Market Sours on AI Fiber Play as US Factory Stays Years Away
04.06.2026 - 16:51:36 | boerse-global.de
The disconnect between Fujikura’s operational momentum and its share price has rarely been wider. On Thursday, the stock of the Japanese optical-fiber specialist tumbled 4.54% to €25.11, extending a bruising run that has erased more than a fifth of its value over the past month. The trigger came from across the Pacific, where chip giant Broadcom missed Wall Street revenue estimates and sent a chill through the entire AI ecosystem. For Fujikura, a key supplier of cabling for hyperscale data centers, the knock-on effect was immediate.
Yet the selloff is not purely a reflection of sector-wide jitters. A deeper look at the company’s own roadmap reveals why investors are growing impatient. Fujikura has now confirmed that its planned US fiber-optic factory will not start production until 2030 at the earliest, with full capacity expected only by the fiscal year 2035. That timeline — coupled with the formal creation of Fujikura Optical Cable Systems LLC in Delaware, slated for June 2026 — means the payoff from the company’s ambitious capacity expansion remains years away. The market had its sixth consecutive losing day on June 2, when the stock hit ¥4,498 in Tokyo, a drop of 179 yen.
The broader context is one of radical mood swings. Just a week ago, the Nikkei 225 had breached 68,000 points, and Fujikura was riding high as a darling of the AI infrastructure trade. Now, with annualized volatility surging to 122%, the stock is skirting oversold territory — the relative strength index stands at 35.6, dangerously close to the 30 threshold. Over the past week, shares are down 9.5%, and the monthly decline stands at roughly 23%. The correction is punishing, but the underlying thesis remains intact.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Fujikura?
Fujikura’s management is betting big. The company has earmarked up to ¥300 billion for a massive expansion that includes a new plant at its Sakura Works site in Japan (costing roughly ¥40 billion and scheduled to start operations in December 2030) and the US facility. The goal is to quadruple production capacity for optical fiber and multi-fiber connectors compared with fiscal 2022 levels. These products are critical for the buildout of generative AI data centers, and demand from North American hyperscalers shows no sign of abating.
The financials justify the scale of the bet. In the last fiscal year, operating profit surged nearly 40% to around ¥188 billion. For the current year, the company forecasts revenue of ¥1.243 trillion, a 5.1% increase, and operating profit of ¥211 billion, representing an 11.8% gain. Those numbers are baked into consensus estimates. What has changed is the market’s assessment of the timing gap between demand and supply. Management itself acknowledged that the measures approved so far will have only a minimal impact on consolidated results through March 2027.
That reality check explains the recent volatility better than any single headline. The Broadcom shock was merely the match that lit the fuse. In a sector where patience is in short supply, a multi-year wait for capacity is a tough sell. Fujikura’s stock split in April — a 1-for-6 move designed to broaden the shareholder base — did little to cushion the fall. The European-listed shares closed at €26.30, having lost nearly a fifth of their value over the past 30 days.
Investors now have a clear set of milestones to watch: the formal incorporation of the US subsidiary, the selection of a site for the American plant, and clarity on energy and hydrogen supply. Until those boxes are ticked, the stock will trade on two levels simultaneously — supported by robust structural demand for AI infrastructure, yet weighed down by a daunting execution timeline. For now, the market is focused on the latter.
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