Germany Faces a Generational Exodus of Skilled Workers as 4.6 Million Near Retirement
Published on 07/06/2026 at 10:56 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Germany's labor market is bracing for a demographic shock that goes far beyond any single sector. A fresh analysis from the Competence Center for Securing Skilled Workers (Kofa) warns that roughly 4.6 million specialists will retire over the next ten to fifteen years. More than 3.6 million of them are in occupations already grappling with acute shortages.
Public transport offers a stark preview of the crunch. According to the same Kofa study, over 60,000 bus and tram drivers are set to leave the workforce by 2041. The age profile is particularly alarming: around 40 percent of today's drivers are 55 or older, putting them on the cusp of retirement. Until the end of this decade, about 6,000 drivers will exit the profession each year purely due to age.
Berlin's BVG has already been forced to trim its service schedule because it cannot find enough staff. To keep operations running, the industry will need roughly 20 percent more personnel by 2030 compared with current levels.
A weak economy is offering transit companies a brief reprieve. "The weaker economy is currently easing pressure on the labor market," said Harald Wortmann, president of the VDV industry association. He stressed that the relief is only temporary. The sector is now betting on technology, particularly autonomous buses, to fill the gaps. Experts also recommend flexible working hours to retain older employees and their accumulated experience.
The driver shortage is part of a larger pattern. Road freight is especially hard hit: around 200,000 lorry drivers are due to retire in the next fifteen years. Construction is suffering too—41 percent of specialists in high-rise building are at least 55, leaving over 1,200 vacancies unfilled.
Meanwhile, the federal government is planning a multibillion-euro push for rail infrastructure. A current cabinet draft proposes raising spending on new lines and upgrades from 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion euros, partly by reallocating funds from the defence budget. But other parts of the rail budget face cuts. Spending on the existing network would be capped at 15 billion euros, digitalisation programmes are being scaled back, and state support for track-access charges in freight traffic will drop from 345 million to 200 million euros—a move that could further erode the competitiveness of rail.
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