Gold Buyers Return Even as Banks Trim Forecasts and Fed Stays Firm
Published on 07/17/2026 at 05:21 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold is still trading near the same level that has kept traders on edge for days, but the flow picture has started to shift. While the metal sits at 3,992 US-Dollar je Feinunze, just 2,32 Prozent above its 52-Wochen-Tief and with an RSI of 37,6, institutional money is moving back in even as major banks cut their price targets and the Federal Reserve keeps pressure on the market.
That tension is reflected most clearly in ETF and futures positioning. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the world’s largest gold ETF, held 1.001,88 Tonnen Gold as of 15. Juli 2026, down 0,63 Tonnen from the previous week, or 0,06 Prozent. Even so, the fund drew net inflows of 290,91 Millionen US-Dollar. In the prior week, the picture had been far weaker, with holdings falling by 2,85 Tonnen and capital leaving the vehicle by 373,93 Millionen US-Dollar.
The broader trend looks more constructive than the weekly physical inventory change alone suggests. The World Gold Council said its Gold ETF Flows Report for the first half of 2026 showed global ETF outflows of 8,9 Milliarden US-Dollar in June, but still left the half-year in positive territory with 8 Milliarden US-Dollar of net inflows overall. On the futures side, total net long volume on COMEX rose 16 Prozent month on month in June to 538 Tonnen, the highest month-end level since Januar 2026.
A split has emerged between investor groups. WGC analysts said large fund managers have been increasing net long positions since the start of June even as gold has weakened. Private investors, by contrast, reduced their non-reportable net long positions during the month. The message from the professional side of the market is clear: hedge funds, banks and other reportable participants have kept adding exposure while prices correct from the January record high.
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Regional flows tell a similar story. North America posted outflows of 7,7 Milliarden US-Dollar in the first half, its weakest first half since 2013. Analysts link that to rising rate expectations, with the US central bank potentially needing higher borrowing costs to counter energy-driven inflation stemming from the US-Iran conflict. Asia moved in the opposite direction, posting 12 Milliarden US-Dollar in inflows for its strongest first half ever, though demand has recently cooled as Chinese investors rotated into equities and Japanese buyers stepped back from gold.
Policy expectations remain one of the key headwinds. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated in his congressional testimony on 15. Juli that the 2 Prozent inflation target remains intact. He said the central bank would be ready to adjust rates if price pressure proves persistent and dismissed concerns that heavy AI investment is feeding inflation. Governor Lisa Cook also signaled willingness for further action if inflation stays elevated, while New York Fed President John Williams described the current rate level as appropriate.
Markets have taken the message seriously. Traders are now pricing a 51 Prozent probability of a rate increase in September, while softer US inflation data have largely ruled out a hike in July.
Those expectations are helping explain why several banks have revised their gold calls lower. HSBC cut its 2026 forecast from 4.864 to 4.560 US-Dollar je Unze and lowered its 2027 target from 5.000 to 4.925 Dollar. Citi reduced its three-month target from 4.300 to 4.000 Dollar, while keeping its six-to-12-month view at 4.500 Dollar. Deutsche Bank trimmed its Q3-2026 target by more than 22 Prozent to 4.300 Dollar and cut its Q4-2026 target by 17 Prozent to 4.800 Dollar.
HSBC chief analyst James Steel said the adjustment reflects rate expectations and dollar strength, both of which limit the rally even if markets have already largely priced them in. Citi added that firmer real yields and softer central bank and ETF demand are also capping upside, though it still sees the medium-term target intact and limited near-term upside unless a fresh macro shock hits.
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Geopolitics, however, continue to offer a counterweight. The US carried out further strikes on Iranian targets on Mittwoch, and President Trump said Tehran had signaled willingness to resume talks. On 15. Juli, the US also imposed a blockade on Iranian ports, pushing oil prices higher and reviving inflation fears.
Market analyst Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu.com said gold is currently in a base-building phase. He pointed to easing dollar strength as a support, while also noting that a prolonged period of high interest rates remains negative for the metal.
The World Gold Council’s valuation model puts fair value at about 4.100 Dollar je Unze. For the second half of 2026, that implies a trading range of plus/minus 5 Prozent, assuming Fed expectations do not change materially. If Middle East tensions keep escalating and oil prices continue to rise, inflation concerns could intensify again and push the Fed toward a longer restrictive stance. That would at least make the banks’ latest forecast cuts look justified in the short term.
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