Gold Climbs on Iran Accord as Markets Brace for Warsh's First Dot Plot
Published on 06/16/2026 at 20:05 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold pushed higher on Tuesday, adding 0.80% to touch $4,365.60 an ounce as a preliminary peace deal between the United States and Iran eased inflation fears. Yet the rally remains tentative: all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve's first policy statement under new Chair Kevin Warsh, with the updated dot plot set to define the metal's next leg.
The agreement, an electronic memorandum of understanding signed by President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance with Tehran, calls for the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this week. The waterway's blockade had sent energy prices surging and pushed the May headline US inflation rate to 4.2% — the highest since April 2023 — with an eye-watering 23.5% jump in energy costs. Core inflation, by contrast, stood at 2.9%. With oil sliding to a two-month low on Monday, swap traders are already dialing back expectations for further rate increases, removing a key headwind for non-yielding bullion.
The accord is far from a done deal, however. According to Vance, the document runs to just one and a half pages and serves as a basis for a 60-day negotiating window. The official signing is set for June 19 in Switzerland, while the thorny issue of Iran's nuclear program remains on the table. That fragility has kept gold from breaking decisively higher: the metal still trades more than 22% below its 52-week peak and beneath the 100-day moving average near $4,757.
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Attention now pivots to the Federal Open Market Committee, which began its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The CME FedWatch Tool puts a 97% probability on a pause that would hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%. With no rate change expected, the real event is the quarterly dot plot, which reveals where each FOMC member sees rates through 2028. A median projection of two hikes in 2026 would likely strengthen the dollar and stall gold's recovery; a neutral or dovish dot plot would remove that overhang. Adding to the intrigue, this is Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair after his narrow 54–45 Senate confirmation on May 22. While Warsh has publicly questioned the usefulness of the dot plot, institutional procedures limit how quickly he can alter the format. Market participants remain cautious: 70% still anticipate at least one rate increase by December, leaving the precise path unresolved until Wednesday's press conference.
Underpinning gold's longer-term bid is continued central bank buying. China has added to its reserves for 18 consecutive months. In the first quarter of 2026, global central banks reported net purchases of 244 tonnes, with a further 17 tonnes in April, according to the World Gold Council. That figure understates total demand — Turkey alone sold 60 tonnes in March, dragging the reported net for the first quarter to just 16 tonnes, and not all central banks disclose their activity to the IMF. The structural appetite from sovereign buyers, combined with the recent geopolitical thaw, has helped gold recover about 5% from its monthly lows, though it remains down roughly 5% on the month. On a year-over-year basis, the metal is still up over 28%. Whether that gap widens or narrows depends on the message the Fed delivers tomorrow.
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