Gold Digs In at $4,300 as 84% of Central Banks Buy In, Fed Holds Steady, and Iran Diplomacy Advances
Published on 06/18/2026 at 09:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
A quiet revolution in official sector demand is providing an increasingly reliable floor under gold. The World Gold Council’s latest survey reveals that 84% of central banks intend to expand their bullion holdings over the coming months. The purchasing is concentrated among emerging-market institutions seeking to reduce dollar exposure amid deepening anxiety over geopolitical fragmentation and the long-term resilience of traditional reserve currencies. This structural wave of sovereign buying has turned what could have been a sharp corrective rout into a contained dip.
The near-term picture, however, is anything but orderly. Gold tumbled to around $4,250 per ounce immediately after the Federal Reserve’s first meeting under Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% but scrubbed every reference to imminent rate cuts from its statement. With core inflation still running at 2.9% year-on-year in May, the updated dot plot hinted that further increases remain possible, perhaps even as late as 2026. That hawkish surprise triggered a wave of selling, yet within 24 hours bullion had recovered most of the loss, regaining the $4,300 area. By Thursday morning, spot gold was quoted at $4,317.80, up 1.4%, while US futures traded at $4,339.30, down about 1% — a split that underscores lingering uncertainty.
Across the Atlantic, a sudden thaw in US-Iran relations has introduced a new element of diplomatic complexity. The two sides have signed a 14-point memorandum that opens a 60-day window for negotiations, with the core provision being Iran’s pledge to allow tariff-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Full shipping capacity through the strait is expected to be restored within 30 days. The prospect of unimpeded oil flows has already pushed Brent crude below $78 a barrel. Lower energy prices ease inflation pressures and, in turn, weaken the dollar as a traditional haven — a boon for gold priced in other currencies. Still, the same diplomatic breakthrough reduces the immediate need for a crisis hedge, chipping away at the precious metal’s risk premium.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Currency markets are amplifying the mixed signals. The dollar index has slipped as traders price in the supply-side relief from a potential Hormuz deal. A weaker greenback makes gold more affordable for international buyers, providing a near-term lift that partially offsets the drag from higher real rates. For now, the bullion market is being pulled in two directions: central bank hoarding and a falling dollar on one side, a hawkish Fed and waning geopolitical tension on the other.
Technicians note that the recovery has yet to break through critical resistance. Gold remains below both its 200-day moving average near $4,430 and its 50-day average around $4,578. It is also trading roughly 22% below its 52-week high of $5,626.80. The relative strength index stands at 46, neutral territory that offers no directional clue. Support is pegged at $4,280; as long as that level holds, the bounce from last week’s low remains intact. Traders see a sustained move above the 200-day line as the prerequisite for a fresh up-leg.
All eyes are now on Friday, June 19, when the formal details of the Iran framework are expected to be released. That event, combined with any further Fed commentary, will determine whether gold can hold the $4,300 handle — or whether the tug-of-war between sovereign buyers and tightening financial conditions yields a breakout in either direction.
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