Gold Overtakes Treasuries in Reserve Rankings as Price Surge Meets Warsh's First Fed Test
Published on 06/15/2026 at 19:22 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold surged above $4,300 on Monday, extending its remarkable run ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting that will see Kevin Warsh chair the Federal Open Market Committee for the first time. The precious metal jumped more than 2.5 percent to $4,329 per troy ounce, snapping a weeks-long correction and underscoring the powerful forces reshaping the global financial landscape.
The rally coincides with a structural shift in central bank reserve management that the European Central Bank has now put into numbers. According to its latest report, gold accounted for just over 27 percent of global reserve assets at the end of 2025, up from 20 percent a year earlier. US Treasuries, by contrast, fell from 25 to 22 percent, surrendering a decades-old dominance. The last time gold outweighed American government bonds in central bank vaults was 1996.
ECB President Christine Lagarde pointed directly to geopolitics as the engine behind this pivot. The freezing of Russian dollar reserves by Washington in 2022 accelerated a desperate search for alternatives free from US counterparty risk. China, India, Poland and Turkey have been the most aggressive buyers. Globally, central banks now hold more than 36,000 tonnes of bullion — close to the level seen during the Bretton Woods era when the dollar was still pegged to gold.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
This week’s price action is tied to a more immediate catalyst. The dollar has softened, with the dollar index slipping to 99.55 on growing speculation of a ceasefire between the US and Iran. A weaker greenback makes dollar-priced gold more attractive for overseas buyers. At the same time, markets are bracing for Warsh’s debut dot plot, released on 17 June, after the Fed holds rates steady this week given US inflation stuck at 4.2 percent in May.
Central banks aren’t the only ones piling in. In the first quarter they bought a net 244 tonnes of gold — the strongest quarterly haul in over a year. Goldman Sachs expects monthly purchases to average around 60 tonnes going forward. Private investors are also jumping aboard. In India, gold ETF inflows reached roughly $3.7 billion in the first quarter, nearly six times the level of a year ago. Wealthy individuals and retail investors now hold 42 percent of those fund assets, using bullion as a hedge against economic volatility.
Yet the rally has its limits. When tensions with Iran flared, Turkey notably sold some of its gold reserves, proving that sovereign holders can still liquidate under financial pressure. Bullion yields no income and incurs hefty storage costs. And if the price falls, its share of total reserves automatically shrinks. A portion of the geopolitical diversification story is already priced in above $4,300, analysts caution.
The immediate direction hinges on Warsh’s tone. If the Fed’s updated rate projections lean hawkish, Monday’s bounce could prove short-lived. A more accommodative stance would give gold room to run. On a 12-month basis the metal is already up almost 28 percent. Either way, the underlying shift from dollars to gold is no longer a whisper — it’s a trend the EZB has now confirmed in black and white.
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