Gold Rallies on Dollar and Oil Tailwinds, but a New Asian Clearing Hub and Hawkish Fed Lurk
25.05.2026 - 07:31:53 | boerse-global.de
The gold market snapped out of a soft patch on Monday, propelled by a weaker dollar and a steep slide in crude prices that eased inflation fears. Spot gold jumped 1.5 percent to $4,577.12 a troy ounce in Asian trading, while futures climbed 1.2 percent to $4,612.24. The advance comes on the heels of a Friday close at $4,521.00, which left the metal 1.09 percent lower for the week and 4.26 percent down on a monthly basis, though it still holds a year-to-date gain of 4.13 percent.
The dollar’s retreat was the primary catalyst. The greenback fell 0.2 percent against the yen to 158.87, and the euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.1642. The move was tied to fresh hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen after progress in US-Iranian talks, boosting risk appetite. Since gold is priced in dollars, a weaker greenback lowers the bar for non-US buyers, providing a quick demand lift. Other precious metals followed: silver added 3.8 percent and platinum gained 2 percent.
Oil’s collapse amplified the bullish case for gold. Brent crude tumbled 5.1 percent to $98.29 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate fell 5 percent to $91.76. The trigger was the same diplomatic push: any easing of the Iran-linked energy crisis would remove a key source of cost-push inflation. Over recent months, high energy prices had stoked fears that the Federal Reserve would need to keep tightening, a headwind for non-yielding gold. Sinking crude now undermines that narrative.
Geopolitics remains the wild card. US President Donald Trump over the weekend described a largely negotiated memorandum of understanding, but stressed that the blockade of Iranian ships would stay in place until a deal is finalized and certified. The Strait of Hormuz handles about a quarter of global maritime oil trade and a fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments, so a reopening would be a game-changer for energy markets. For gold, the immediate link runs through the dollar and inflation expectations rather than classic safe-haven demand.
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Yet the macro backdrop is far from uniformly bullish. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has warned that the next rate move could be a hike or a cut, keeping the market on edge. The energy shock from the Iran war has reignited inflation pressure, and the CME FedWatch tool now puts a 43 percent probability on a 25-basis-point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting. Traders have all but abandoned hopes for rate cuts in 2026. Weighing on sentiment further, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index sank to 44.8 in May from 49.8 in April, while one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8 percent and the long-term measure hit 3.9 percent.
Against that mixed macro picture, a structural development in Asia is capturing industry attention. Hong Kong is building a state-backed clearing system for precious metals, modeled directly on London’s “unallocated accounts” framework. The Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Co. aims to launch by July, allowing clients to hold claims on gold rather than specific numbered bars. The system is overseen by a supervisory board of eleven banks, including Chinese giants ICBC and Bank of China, alongside Western heavyweights HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, and UBS. Notably, three of those Western banks are also co-owners of London’s incumbent clearing system, giving Hong Kong direct access to established expertise.
The clearing project is part of a broader push to transform the city into Asia’s premier gold hub. Storage capacity is slated to rise from 200 tonnes to more than 2,000 tonnes within three years. The government is also exploring tax incentives for local gold trading activity, and a first-phase investment of $150 million has been allocated for a refinery in Tai Po. A cooperation agreement with the Shanghai Gold Exchange further ties the initiative to China’s ambitions to reduce reliance on Western trading infrastructure. With China and India already the world’s top bullion consumers, the logic is clear: move the market plumbing closer to the demand.
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On the technical front, gold’s rally has not yet broken through resistance. The metal remains below its 50-day moving average of $4,669.36, and the relative strength index sits at a neutral 49.8, leaving room for further upside if the tailwinds persist. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 20 percent — moderate for a market caught between short-term geopolitical and currency drivers, and a longer-term reconfiguration of global gold trading. Both the diplomatic talks over Hormuz and the countdown to Hong Kong’s July launch will keep traders focused on two very different frontiers.
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