Gold's 14% Quarterly Wipeout: Central Banks Build Hidden Hoard as Fed Hawks Drive Selloff
30.06.2026 - 15:37:06 | boerse-global.de
Gold has just posted its worst quarterly performance on record. The precious metal tumbled roughly 14% in the three months through June, briefly breaching the psychologically critical $4,000 threshold. A modest bounce to $4,035 has done little to mask the scale of the damage — the yellow metal is nursing a monthly loss of over 10%.
The rout has been orchestrated primarily from Washington. Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has unleashed an aggressively hawkish pivot, hiking the central bank’s core inflation forecast for this year to 3.6%. With US inflation stubbornly stuck at 4.2%, markets now price a roughly 80% probability of a rate move in December, while September carries a 60% chance of tightening. Three separate rate increases are now being priced for 2026. The dollar has surged to a fresh annual high, and rising real yields are pummelling the opportunity cost of holding a zero-coupon asset like bullion.
Yet beneath the surface of this paper-driven selloff, a very different story is unfolding in the physical market. The World Gold Council’s official figures show only 16 tonnes of net central bank purchases in the first quarter — but that number is deeply misleading. By triangulating data from the London market and Swiss refineries, the Council estimates true central bank buying hit 244 tonnes in Q1, a substantial rise from the previous quarter. China alone imported 317 tonnes net in early 2026, while the People’s Bank quietly stepped up its monthly reserve additions. Turkey, by contrast, was a seller in March. A survey by the World Gold Council still finds 45% of global central banks intend to boost holdings, but a separate UBS poll reveals growing caution: only 29% of reserve managers now see gold as a top performer going forward, down from 67% a year ago. Persistent inflation and climbing bond yields have overtaken geopolitical tensions as the chief worry for monetary authorities.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Wall Street is also recalibrating. Goldman Sachs has slashed its end-2026 price target to $4,900, stripping all expectations for Fed rate cuts this year and pushing the first potential easing to June or December 2027. The bank cites fading inflows into Asian gold ETFs as an additional drag. J.P. Morgan stands as an outlier, holding to a year-end forecast of $6,000.
Technicians are sounding their own alarms. The chart setup is flashing a potential “death cross,” where short-term moving averages slide below long-term trendlines — a pattern that historically amplifies selling pressure. Goldman’s analysts, while cutting their near-term target, note that gold often bottoms in early summer before recovering later in the season. The next major catalyst arrives with the US jobs report and purchasing managers’ index data due this week. If the labour market again prints as strongly as it did in early June — when a single day wiped 3.7% off gold — the $4,000 support level will face a severe test. For now, the tug of war between hidden physical demand and overt monetary tightening leaves the market in an unusually fractured state.
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Gold Stock: New Analysis - 30 June
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
