Gold’s Demand-Supply Disconnect Widens as Official Buying Hits 244 Tonnes but Policy Headwinds Persist
29.06.2026 - 19:33:07 | boerse-global.de
Gold is caught in a tug-of-war between unprecedented central bank accumulation and the most hawkish Federal Reserve stance in years. While monetary authorities worldwide added 244 tonnes to their reserves in the first quarter — a 17% jump from the prior quarter — the yellow metal has shed roughly 9% to 12% over the past 30 days, slipping to around $4,041 an ounce. That puts it nearly 28% below the record high hit in January, a decline driven almost entirely by a sharp repricing of interest-rate expectations.
The divergence between physical demand and price action has rarely been starker. A survey by the World Gold Council found that nearly half of all central banks plan to increase their bullion holdings further, with Poland and Uzbekistan leading the buying spree. Goldman Sachs forecasts average monthly purchases of 60 tonnes for the remainder of the year. Private investors are piling in as well: global demand for coins and bars reached 474 tonnes in Q1, the second-highest tally on record. Yet all that buying is being overwhelmed by macro forces.
The primary source of headwinds is the Fed under Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, printed at 4.1% on June 25 — well above target — and the Fed has sharply revised its own inflation forecast for this year to 3.6% from 2.7%. Markets now price in three rate hikes, with a 62% probability of the first move coming in September. A strong dollar, which hit a 13-month high, is compounding the pressure by making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Geopolitical tensions that once fueled a war premium have also eased, at least temporarily. After Iran struck ships and military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain late last week, the US retaliated, but both sides have since paused attacks. Peace talks are scheduled to begin this week in Doha, and reports of a possible ceasefire between the US and Iran have further reduced safe-haven flows. Although drone strikes on commercial vessels continue to keep the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight, markets currently weight monetary signals from Washington above shipping risks.
Technically, the metal is looking increasingly oversold. The relative strength index sits at 34.5, suggesting a bounce could be near. Gold briefly dipped below $4,000 before recovering, and the next key support stands at $3,960. A break below that would put the 52-week low of $3,901 within reach — just 3.5% from current levels. The RSI reading alone does not guarantee a reversal, but it does indicate that the selling has been excessive relative to underlying demand.
Long-term bulls remain undeterred. J.P. Morgan sees gold climbing to $6,000 by end-2026 and $6,300 in 2027, while Goldman Sachs has a year-end 2026 target of $4,900. Both banks cite structural drivers such as high sovereign debt, de-dollarization, and persistent central bank buying. The World Gold Council survey adds weight to that thesis: 61% of central banks now view US government debt as a threat to the dollar’s reserve status — up from just 20% in 2024 — and the total pool of reserves under management by sovereign funds and central banks is $29 trillion. Even a modest shift out of dollars into gold would sustain demand for years.
For the immediate term, however, the path of least resistance remains lower until the Fed signals a pivot. The next catalysts are this week’s US jobs report and the ISM manufacturing index, both of which could either reinforce or undermine the rate-hike narrative. Until then, gold is left wrestling with its own paradox: record physical hoarding that cannot yet overcome the gravitational pull of rising real yields.
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Gold Stock: New Analysis - 29 June
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
