Gold’s Fractured Rally: Jobs Miss and a Weakening Dollar Collide with ETF Outflows and a Looming Death Cross
Published on 07/04/2026 at 11:52 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold notched its best weekly performance in months on Friday, climbing to $4,187.30 an ounce after a 1.23% daily gain. The 2.04% advance for the week erased some of the sting from a bruising second quarter, but the metal’s path forward looks anything but straightforward. Two powerful tailwinds — a shockingly weak US jobs report and a sliding dollar — are propelling prices higher, yet the market is also contending with a steady exodus of Western institutional money and a chart pattern that historically signals trouble ahead.
Jobs data rekindle rate-cut chatter — then the probability flips
The rally took off on July 2 when the US Labor Department reported the economy added just 57,000 new nonfarm payrolls in June, far below the downwardly revised 129,000 in May and well under consensus forecasts. Investors wasted no time recalibrating their rate expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now pegs the probability of a September rate cut at 53.5% — a sharp reversal from around 65% before the data landed. Lower interest rates make gold, which yields no income, more attractive relative to bonds. The move also dovetailed with a broader dollar retreat; the greenback suffered its largest weekly decline since April, shaving the cost of bullion for buyers outside the US.
EU tariffs come off the table — for now
Adding to the constructive backdrop, the European Union met the July 4 deadline set by Donald Trump for implementing the tariff deal with Washington. Under the agreement, the EU has eliminated its levies on US industrial goods and lowered barriers for American products entering Europe, while accepting US tariffs of up to 15% on most European exports. Trump had threatened to escalate “immediately to a much higher level” if the EU failed to comply, and the removal of that specific flashpoint removes one layer of uncertainty for gold. The broader unpredictability of US trade policy, however, remains a lingering risk.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Central banks hoard while ETFs haemorrhage
Beneath the surface, a fascinating bifurcation is taking place. Western institutional investors continue to pull money out of physically-backed gold ETFs. The SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s largest such fund, held roughly 1,013 tonnes in mid-June, but its holdings have shrunk by more than 57 tonnes since the start of the year. Standard Chartered’s Suki Cooper calculates that 298 tonnes of gold held in ETFs are now underwater — mainly positions accumulated around the $4,000 level, which marked the 52-week low last October.
Offsetting that selling pressure is an insatiable appetite from central banks. A World Gold Council survey of 76 reserve managers worldwide found that 89% expect global gold reserves to rise over the next 12 months, and 45% plan to add to their own holdings in that timeframe. This structural demand, fed by geopolitical and reserve-diversification needs, is providing a bedrock beneath the price.
Technical clouds gather
Despite the recent bounce, the charts are flashing amber. Gold remains 3.56% lower year-to-date and has shed 6.16% on a monthly basis. It now trades 5.16% below its 50-day moving average and even further from the 100-day. That configuration has reignited talk of a “death cross”, where short-term moving averages slip below longer-term ones — a classic medium-term bearish signal. The relative strength index sits at 46.6, a neutral reading that gives little directional clue. From the 52-week high of $5,626.80 set in late January, the metal is still off by 25.58%; from the October trough of $3,901.30, it sits just 7.33% above. The annualized volatility over the past 30 sessions stands at 27.65%, underscoring market jitters.
What to watch next week
Traders will be watching for delayed Commodity Futures Trading Commission data from the COMEX, due Monday after the July 4 holiday in the US, which will reveal how institutional speculators have positioned themselves. Also on the calendar: Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook, with his dual role as an ECB Governing Council member likely to focus attention on the euro-denominated gold price. The interplay between US debt dynamics, eurozone inflation risks, and the path of Fed policy promises to keep gold’s volatility elevated in the days ahead.
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