Gold’s Nine-Week Slide Tests Key Support as Central Bank Buying Fails to Arrest Momentum
23.05.2026 - 19:01:41 | boerse-global.de
Gold notched its ninth consecutive weekly decline on Friday, extending one of the longest correction streaks in recent history. The yellow metal settled at $4,510.50 an ounce, down 0.65 percent on the day and 4.69 percent for the month. The weekly drop was roughly one percent, leaving the precious metal hovering just above a critical psychological floor at $4,445. A daily close below that level would open the door toward the 200-day moving average at $4,397, with the next stop at $4,100 if that gives way.
The macro backdrop offers little relief. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index plunged to a record low of 44.8 in May, while short-term inflation expectations jumped to 4.8 percent and the long-term measure hit 3.9 percent. Those figures cement the view that the Federal Reserve has no room to cut rates in 2026, a scenario that keeps non-yielding assets like bullion structurally disadvantaged. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to a weekly low of 4.56 percent, but the yield gap to gold’s 50-day moving average at $4,669 remains roughly 3.4 percent. The relative strength index sits at 49.8, squarely in neutral territory — neither oversold nor overbought.
Geopolitical crosscurrents add another layer of ambiguity. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio cited “slight progress” in nuclear talks with Iran on Friday, a characterization Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei swiftly rebutted, denying any significant breakthroughs. With core disputes over uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, gold remains caught between the prospect of escalation — which would drive safe-haven flows — and a potential deal that would erode risk premiums. For now, the market is stuck in wait-and-see mode.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Offsetting some of the pressure is sustained institutional buying. Central banks added 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter, three percent more than a year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. China and India remain the most active purchasers. Goldman Sachs recently raised its estimate for monthly central bank buying to 60 tonnes, up from 50, after revised UK trade data revealed larger outflows from London vaults than previously reported. Russia, however, is moving in the opposite direction: its central bank sold more than 12 tonnes in April, marking the fourth straight month of divestment.
The divergence between retail and official flows is stark. Private investors have been exiting gold ETFs, while central banks restock. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic on price, with the median year-end 2026 consensus pegged at $4,916. J.P. Morgan sees the potential for a rally to $6,000 by year-end — roughly 33 percent above current levels — assuming the Fed eventually pivots and mining supply constraints persist. Goldman Sachs stands by its year-end target of $5,400.
Attention now turns to a holiday-thinned week. US equity markets are closed Monday, and the only major data point is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index on Tuesday. Any fresh signals on inflation or the rate path could set the near-term tone. If the $4,445 floor holds, a bounce is possible; if it cracks, the 200-day moving average is the next line in the sand.
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