Gold's Rebound Masks a Market Torn Between Central Bank Demand and Fed Hawkishness
11.06.2026 - 22:11:22 | boerse-global.de
Gold staged a sharp recovery on Thursday, climbing from a six-month low near $4,024 to a daily high of $4,169.83 per ounce, after US President Donald Trump called off planned heavy strikes on Iran and signaled negotiations at the highest level were close to a breakthrough. The metal settled at $4,172.50, posting a daily gain of nearly 2%. Yet on a seven-day view, the loss still exceeds 7%, and the broader picture remains deeply divided.
The de-escalation stemmed a wave of panic selling that had engulfed the market in recent weeks. Reports indicate Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates are involved in the talks, which has peeled away the extreme crisis premium that previously underpinned gold prices. However, the macroeconomic environment continues to exert heavy pressure. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, far surpassing analyst expectations of roughly 85,000, reinforcing the dollar and pushing interest rate expectations higher. Consumer prices rose 4.2% year-on-year, according to data released midweek, adding to the case for tighter policy.
At the futures market, the probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike by year-end stands at around 70%. Gold bears no yield, and rising Treasury yields have made the opportunity cost of holding physical bullion uncomfortably high for many investors. This headwind from the bond market remains the single biggest obstacle to a sustained rally.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Beneath the price action, a fundamental shift in demand is unfolding. Bar and coin purchases are on track to surpass jewelry as the largest component of physical demand for the first time this year, with buyers in China and India aggressively stepping in on the pullback – their demand jumped 28% and 17% respectively in the most recent quarter, while costly jewelry consumption continues to shrink.
Central banks are adding to the buying frenzy. In the first quarter, global central banks purchased a net 244 tonnes of gold. Poland’s National Bank has been the most active single buyer, adding roughly 14 tonnes in April to bring its official reserves to 595 tonnes, with year-to-date purchases now exceeding 45 tonnes. China’s central bank extended its buying streak to a 18th consecutive month in April, adding another 8 tonnes and lifting its official holdings to more than 2,322 tonnes. The Czech National Bank was in its 38th month of purchases. These state-level buyers are diversifying away from US dollar dependence, providing a steady physical floor beneath the market.
Technically, gold had become severely oversold during the rout. The Relative Strength Index had fallen to an extreme 23.8 points before the rebound – levels that have historically triggered counter-moves. After Thursday’s bounce, the RSI recovered to around 31, still indicating oversold conditions but suggesting further upside potential. The $4,150 zone is now viewed as a fresh support level.
Looking ahead, Friday brings US producer price data and an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank, both of which could shift the short-term trajectory. Longer-term, analysts at Goldman Sachs remain optimistic, calling a year-end price target of $5,400 per ounce, underpinned by the voracious appetite from emerging-market buyers. For now, gold is a market of two halves: relentless physical accumulation versus stern monetary policy headwinds.
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