Gold Snaps Four-Week Losing Streak as Payrolls Miss and Sovereign Buying Collide
Published on 07/05/2026 at 06:55 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Central banks have emerged as the bullion market's most dependable buyer, and fresh data from the World Gold Council underscores the scale of their appetite. In May, global central banks added 41 net tonnes to their reserves, with Poland accounting for 18 tonnes and China extending its buying streak to a 20th consecutive month. Beijing’s hoard now stands at 2,331 tonnes. More tellingly, 45% of central banks surveyed by the WGC intend to boost their gold holdings over the coming year—a record share. The yellow metal has even displaced US Treasuries as a larger component of reserve portfolios.
That sovereign buying provided a sturdy floor as the metal endured a four-week slide. But the immediate trigger for Friday’s sharp reversal came from across the Atlantic. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, falling well short of the 110,000–115,000 that economists had pencilled in. The miss sent the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September tumbling from 66% to roughly 53%. Since gold pays no interest, a less aggressive tightening trajectory lowers the opportunity cost of holding the metal—and the price responded accordingly.
By the close on Friday, spot gold had settled at $4,187.30 an ounce, a daily advance of 1.23% and a weekly gain of around 2%. That snapped a four-week losing run, though the month-on-month picture remains bleak: gold is still down 6.16% in the past 30 days and sits 25.58% below its January high.
The dollar amplified the move. The greenback logged its steepest weekly loss since April, making dollar-denominated bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. Adding to the supportive backdrop, tensions in the Middle East showed signs of easing. The US and Iran made headway in talks, commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz began flowing more smoothly, and oil prices retreated. Lower energy costs take the edge off global inflation fears, reducing pressure on central banks to tighten.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Fed governor Kevin Warsh, who took the helm at the central bank earlier this year, acknowledged this week that inflation expectations are cooling. Market participants will scour the minutes of the Fed’s last policy meeting—Warsh’s first as chair—for further clues on the rate path. The European Central Bank also looms: it raised its benchmark rate to 2.25% in June and is due to deliver its next decision on July 23. The widening rate differential between the Fed and the ECB is likely to keep the dollar on the move, with direct consequences for gold.
On the physical side, demand remains a mixed bag. Indian consumers are balking at elevated prices, while Chinese buying has picked up modestly. These opposing forces could fuel short-term swings.
Chart watchers, meanwhile, have their eyes on the $4,200–$4,300 zone. That band represents the nearest resistance, with the 50-day moving average sitting well above at $4,415 and the relative strength index at 46.6—neutral territory. A clean break above $4,200 would bring medium-term targets back into play: Goldman Sachs sees $4,900 next year, while JPMorgan has $4,500 pencilled in for the fourth quarter of 2026. Downside protection lies around $4,000, a level that has held firm recently, and the 52-week low of $3,901.30 is still 7.33% below Friday’s close.
Gold at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Silver has joined the recovery, clearing $62 an ounce and pushing the gold-silver ratio to 66.9—a sign that the precious-metals rebound is broadening out. The coming week will be decisive. The Fed minutes and the dollar’s next leg will determine whether gold can finally crack the $4,200 ceiling or stall once again.
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