Gold Stages a Decisive Reversal as Jobs Shock and Sovereign Stockpiling Overlap
Published on 07/05/2026 at 10:34 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Gold has snapped a four-week losing streak in emphatic fashion, finding support from two distinct but equally powerful forces: a US labor market that badly missed expectations and a central bank community that is stockpiling the precious metal at a record pace. The combination sent the price to $4,187.30 an ounce on Friday, up 1.23 per cent for the session and roughly 2 per cent on the week.
The immediate trigger was June’s employment report, which showed the American economy added just 57,000 new jobs. Economists had been expecting a figure in the range of 110,000 to 115,000. The miss sent bond yields lower and slashed the probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase in September from 66 per cent to around 53 per cent. For a non-yielding asset such as gold, any delay in tightening reduces the opportunity cost of holding it, and traders responded accordingly. Even after the rally, however, the metal remains 6.16 per cent lower on the month and 25.58 per cent below its January high.
The structural pillar of the bounce is the relentless appetite of central banks. The World Gold Council reported net purchases of 41 tonnes in May, led by Poland with 18 tonnes and China, which added to its reserves for the 20th consecutive month. Beijing’s holdings now stand at 2,331 tonnes, a figure that underscores its strategy of reducing dollar dependence. More striking still is the survey data: 45 per cent of central banks plan to increase their gold holdings over the next twelve months, a record share. According to the WGC, bullion has become a larger component of global reserves than US Treasuries.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
On the charts, the immediate resistance zone lies between $4,200 and $4,300 an ounce. The 50-day moving average sits well above that level at $4,415, while the relative strength index of 46.6 suggests the market is neither overbought nor oversold. Investors have taken comfort from the support that has formed around $4,000 – the 52-week low of $3,901.30 is now 7.33 per cent away. Silver’s jump above $62 has also lifted sentiment, pushing the gold-silver ratio to 66.9 and hinting at a broader recovery in precious metals.
The coming days will test whether gold can hold above $4,200. All eyes are on the US services sector reports – the ISM manufacturing index and the S&P Global Services PMI – which could reignite rate-hike expectations if prices prove sticky. The Federal Reserve will also release the minutes from its June meeting, the first presided over by new chairman Kevin Warsh, who has described inflation risks as easing. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank is due to announce its next rate decision on 23 July, having lifted its main rate to 2.25 per cent in June. Any divergence between the two central banks’ paths is likely to move the dollar and, by extension, gold. The next Fed policy decision is not until 28–29 July, leaving plenty of room for the data to shape the narrative.
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