Gold Stages Sudden Reversal After Jobs Data Shock, Setting Up High-Stakes Fed Week
13.06.2026 - 18:34:38 | boerse-global.de
Gold prices staged a dramatic turnaround last week, plunging to a seven-month intraday low of $4,046 before roaring back to close Friday at $4,241.10 — a 4.8% swing that technical analysts have flagged as a textbook bear trap. The violent move left short sellers nursing losses and set the stage for a pivotal week ahead as the Federal Reserve prepares to deliver its latest interest-rate projections.
The initial selloff was triggered by a far stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for May, which showed 172,000 new positions created — more than double the consensus estimate of 80,000 to 85,000. The data sent Treasury yields surging and the dollar higher, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Traders immediately repriced the outlook for monetary policy, betting the Fed would keep rates elevated for longer.
Yet the metal quickly found a floor. After slicing through key support levels, gold attracted aggressive short-covering that accelerated the rebound back above $4,200. The Relative Strength Index currently sits at 36.2, deep in oversold territory but still shy of generating a clear buy signal. The price remains roughly 8% below its 50-day moving average of $4,600, and analysts say a sustained recovery requires a weekly close above $4,310.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Meanwhile, the broader fundamental picture remains mixed. The latest U.S. inflation readings offered no relief: the consumer price index rose 4.2% in May, while producer prices shot up 6.5%. Normally such data would drive safe-haven demand, but a simultaneous easing of geopolitical tensions — the U.S. called off planned airstrikes against Iran — dampened the safe-haven bid.
Compounding the uncertainty, a regulatory standoff between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the CME Group over plans for 24-hour gold futures trading has been put on ice. The CFTC warned that round-the-clock trading could fuel excessive volatility, and the initiative has been paused pending further review.
For now, the physical market is providing a crucial backstop. Central banks added a net 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026, with emerging-market institutions leading the charge to reduce dollar dependence. China alone bought 10 tonnes in May, marking its nineteenth consecutive month of purchases. Institutional holders such as Tether have also built sizable positions, creating a layer of demand that buffers speculative selling.
All eyes now turn to the Fed’s June 16-17 meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The release of the dot plot — the central bank’s individual rate projections — will be the key catalyst. If the dots signal a persistently hawkish stance, the recovery rally could quickly stall. But a nod toward easing later this year would give gold a clear run at the $4,310-4,380 resistance zone. The critical near-term support is $4,200; a break below that level would open the door to a retest of last week’s $4,046 low.
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