Gold Steadies Near $4,500 as Markets Weigh Ceasefire Breakthrough Against Oil Surge
04.06.2026 - 22:34:17 | boerse-global.de
Gold edged higher on Thursday, climbing almost 1% to $4,506 an ounce, as a softer dollar and falling bond yields provided support. The metal later ticked up to $4,529, a gain of roughly 1.5% from the previous session, but the real test arrives Friday with the release of the official US payrolls report for May.
The recent rally reflects a delicate balance of opposing forces. On one side, diplomatic signals out of the Middle East have weighed on the dollar: reports that Israel and Lebanon agreed on a path toward a ceasefire, combined with a US House resolution opposing a continuation of war with Iran, prompted a relief rally across markets. The greenback slid, making gold cheaper for overseas buyers, while oil prices dropped more than 3% on hopes the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. That optimism remains fragile — Hezbollah has rejected the ceasefire terms, according to the latest reports.
On the other side, energy markets have reignited inflation fears. Attacks on infrastructure in the region drove WTI crude to $97 a barrel and Brent just under the $100 mark. Higher oil prices feed into "sticky inflation" that gives central banks little room to ease, complicating the outlook for a non-yielding asset like gold.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Gold?
Labour market data has only added to the uncertainty. Initial jobless claims came in at 225,000, above the 215,000 analysts had penciled in, nudging yields lower and bolstering the case for the Federal Reserve to hold off on further tightening. Yet the ADP private payrolls reading for May of 122,000 beat expectations of 118,000, a signal that the jobs engine is still humming. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reinforced that hawkish tilt, leaving the door open to rate hikes if inflation reaccelerates.
The tug-of-war leaves gold technically neutral but nursing a modest hangover. The metal trades roughly 20% below its all-time high of $5,626.80, set on 29 January 2026, with the relative strength index hovering near 44–46 — nowhere near overbought territory. It sits about 2.4% under the 50-day moving average at $4,641, a level that could act as resistance if momentum picks up.
What has kept gold from sliding further is a broadening buyer base. Central banks added a net 17 tonnes in April, led by Poland and China. Beyond official reserves, Indian pension funds, Chinese insurers, and even digital-asset issuers like Tether are increasingly allocating to physical bullion, providing a floor during pullbacks. Metals Focus still expects a bull market in the second half of the year.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will be the next directional catalyst. A strong number in line with the ADP print could push gold back below the $4,450 support zone, while a miss would bring the $4,500 threshold back into play — and revive hopes that monetary policy might shift before the year ends.
Ad
Gold Stock: New Analysis - 4 June
Fresh Gold information released. What's the impact for investors? Our latest independent report examines recent figures and market trends.
