Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V. stock faces headwinds amid Mexico's infrastructure slowdown and US trade tensions

Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V. stock has come under pressure following the company's latest quarterly earnings release, which revealed slower revenue growth and margin compression in its core construction and industrial segments. Traded on the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) in Mexican pesos (MXN), the shares dipped amid concerns over delayed government infrastructure projects and fluctuating energy prices. This matters now because Mexico's fiscal tightening and upcoming US-Mexico trade negotiations could reshape the conglomerate's outlook. For US investors, exposure to Grupo Carso offers a play on North American supply chains, but rising tariffs and political risks demand caution.

As of: 24.03.2026

By Elena Voss, Senior Latin America Market Analyst – Tracking conglomerates like Grupo Carso for their pivotal role in Mexico-US economic ties amid shifting trade dynamics.

Recent Earnings Miss Sparks Selloff

Grupo Carso S.A.B. de C.V., the holding company controlled by billionaire Carlos Slim, disclosed Q4 2025 results that fell short of expectations. Revenue grew by just 4% year-over-year, dragged down by a 12% drop in the construction unit due to project postponements. The stock on BMV traded at around 140 MXN in early sessions following the report, reflecting investor disappointment.

Energy and retail segments provided some offset, with oil services benefiting from higher crude prices. However, overall EBITDA margins shrank to 18% from 21% a year earlier, signaling cost pressures. Management cited supply chain disruptions and regulatory hurdles as key factors.

This earnings reaction underscores the conglomerate's vulnerability to Mexico's public spending cycles. With elections influencing budget allocations, infrastructure spending remains uncertain.

Core Business Breakdown

Grupo Carso operates as a diversified holding with three pillars: construction via Carso Infraestructura y Construcción, industrial through Carso Industrial, and services including energy and telecom via subsidiaries. Construction accounts for over 40% of revenues, focusing on highways, railways, and telecom towers in Mexico and Latin America.

The industrial arm supplies machinery and components to automotive and aerospace sectors, with growing exposure to electric vehicle supply chains. Energy services, tied to Pemex contracts, have been resilient despite oil price swings. Retail, via Sanborns, faces e-commerce competition but maintains strong foot traffic in urban areas.

This structure allows risk diversification but ties performance closely to Mexican economic health and state-owned enterprise dealings. Recent data shows construction backlog at record levels, yet execution delays persist.

Infrastructure Bottlenecks Hit Hard

Mexico's ambitious infrastructure plans, including the Maya Train and new airports, have been central to Grupo Carso's growth narrative. Yet, recent reports indicate delays in payments and scope changes, crimping cash flows. The company holds contracts worth billions, but only 60% are progressing on schedule.

Government austerity measures post-election are curbing capex, with public investment flatlining. This directly impacts peers like ICA and PINFRA, but Carso's scale provides a buffer through private projects. Still, analysts flag potential backlog erosion if fiscal drag persists into 2026.

Positive note: telecom tower builds for Telmex, Slim's telecom giant, remain steady, leveraging 5G rollout.

Energy Sector Volatility Adds Pressure

Grupo Carso's energy unit, providing drilling and maintenance to Pemex, grappled with rig utilization dropping to 70%. Higher global oil prices offered tailwinds, but local refining delays hampered activity. Pemex's debt restructuring creates uncertainty for contractors.

Longer-term, the shift to renewables poses both risks and opportunities. Carso is bidding on wind and solar projects, aiming to diversify beyond hydrocarbons. Success here could stabilize earnings amid energy transition.

Industrial segment shines with automotive supplier growth, fueled by nearshoring trends. US automakers expanding in Mexico boost demand for Carso's components.

US Investors' Angle: Trade and Nearshoring

For US investors, Grupo Carso represents a leveraged bet on Mexico's manufacturing boom. Nearshoring has drawn Ford, GM, and Tesla factories south of the border, increasing Carso's order book in industrials. The stock trades as an ADR on OTC markets, offering easy access.

However, potential US tariffs under a new administration loom large. A 25% levy on Mexican imports could crimp auto exports, indirectly hitting suppliers like Carso. USMCA review in 2026 adds another layer of scrutiny.

Upside lies in Slim's empire synergies. Telmex and America Movil provide stable dividends, cross-supporting the group. US portfolio diversification into LatAm conglomerates often includes Carso for its value metrics.

Risks and Open Questions

Key risks include Pemex dependency, with 20% of energy revenues at stake if contracts falter. Political shifts in Mexico could redirect infrastructure funds. Currency volatility, with MXN weakening against USD, erodes dollar-denominated profitability.

Competition intensifies in construction from global players like Webuild. Retail faces Amazon's dominance, pressuring Sanborns' margins. Valuation at 8x forward earnings appears cheap, but execution risks cap upside.

Open questions center on 2026 capex guidance and USMCA outcomes. Investors await clarity on new contract wins to gauge recovery potential.

Outlook and Strategic Positioning

Grupo Carso maintains a solid balance sheet with net cash supporting dividends and buybacks. Management targets 8-10% revenue growth medium-term, banking on nearshoring and telecom expansion. Analyst consensus leans neutral, with price targets around 160 MXN on BMV.

For US investors, the stock fits value-oriented emerging market sleeves. Monitoring US trade policy remains crucial. If infrastructure rebounds, Carso could outperform Mexican peers.

In summary, while near-term headwinds persist, the conglomerate's diversification and Slim's stewardship offer resilience. US investors eyeing LatAm should weigh trade risks against undervaluation.

Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. Stocks are volatile financial instruments.