Heidelberger Druckmaschinen: Short Interest Hits 5% as Profitability Gap Widens and Defense Hopes Rest on June Results
03.06.2026 - 04:47:41 | boerse-global.de
Heidelberger Druckmaschinen is heading into a pivotal month with bears piling in and bulls waiting for proof that its defence pivot can revive margins. Short sellers now control nearly 5% of the group's free float, after Qube Research & Technologies disclosed a fresh net short position of 0.73% on 29 May, pushing the aggregate reported short ratio to 4.97%. That concentration of professional pessimism is hard to ignore for a mid-cap industrial name, even if the short interest alone does not dictate direction.
The ammunition for those bears came in April, when Heidelberg published preliminary results for the 2025/2026 fiscal year. The adjusted EBITDA margin clocked in at around 6.6%, missing the group's own guidance span. Revenue and order intake were on track, but profitability faltered. Management blamed negative currency effects, a sudden drop in investment appetite since late February, an unfavourable product mix in the final quarter, and upfront costs tied to new business areas – primarily the defence venture ONBERG Autonomous Systems. The currency headwind alone shaved roughly €20 million off EBITDA. Efficiency measures and lower operating costs only partly offset the damage.
The cash flow picture is even starker. Operating cash flow slumped to €36 million, a €77 million decline year-on-year, driven by lower margins and reduced customer prepayments. Restructuring-related outflows climbed to €26 million as Heidelberg pushed ahead with its transformation plan. Revenue, however, held up relatively well: at roughly €2.29 billion, it was stable in reported terms and met the currency-adjusted target.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Heidelberger Druckmaschinen?
Technically, the shares are under pressure. On 29 May, the stock crossed below its 100-day moving average at €1.49, fitting into an existing downtrend that has wiped out 21.76% since 15 April. The distance to the 200-day line now stands at minus 18.70%. The decline from levels above €2 in April to a low of €1.32 represents a loss of more than 30% in a matter of weeks.
Much of the market debate centres on whether the defence pivot can eventually fill the profit gap. The joint venture ONBERG Autonomous Systems, based in Brandenburg an der Havel, is Heidelberg’s vehicle into autonomous drone defence. HD Advanced Technologies, a Heidelberg subsidiary, is collaborating with Ondas Autonomous Systems to cover everything from development to series production. The company has touted ONBERG as a source of long-term growth, but also explicitly flagged it as a drag on near-term margins. Defence currently contributes less than 2% of total revenue, though order intake in the segment rose 6% in the latest period. Management does not expect meaningful sales from drone defence before the second half of 2026, with an operating break-even roughly twelve months after full production ramp-up.
The board has reinforced confidence in the management team. CEO Jürgen Otto’s contract was extended through July 2029, and CSO Dr. David Schmedding’s mandate runs until June 2031.
All eyes now turn to June, when Heidelberg will release its audited annual report, full strategic outlook, and financial guidance. That will be the first occasion for investors to scrutinise detailed numbers on the defence business and judge whether the combination of stable revenue, weak cash flow, and ambitious defence plans can deliver a credible margin recovery. Until then, the short sellers are likely to keep their bets on the table.
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