Hensoldt’s CEO Places a Personal Bet as 23% Share Slide Defies Record €9.8 Billion Order Book
Published on 06/24/2026 at 18:15 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Oliver Dörre put his own money where his mouth is last week, snapping up 2,500 Hensoldt shares for roughly €172,000 in transactions executed via Xetra and the Stuttgart exchange. Insider buys of this size are rare and typically signal that management sees value where the broader market does not. Yet the defence group’s stock continues to trade near its 52-week low, down more than 40% from last year’s high of €115.10.
The share closed at €68.44 on the day of the roadshow finale in Baden?Baden, having shed about 4%. Over the trailing 30 days the slide has deepened to over 23%, leaving the price just 6% above the annual trough of €64.80. The relative strength index sits at 34.5 – a whisker above the oversold threshold of 30. Technical traders will be watching for a bounce, but so far the market has shown little appetite for the stock.
Record order book, tighter cash flow targets
The disconnect between Hensoldt’s operational performance and its market valuation is striking. At the end of the first quarter the order backlog stood at a record €9.8 billion. Incoming orders in Q1 alone nearly doubled to roughly €1.5 billion, fuelled by accelerated procurement processes in Germany. That pipeline secures factory utilisation for years to come.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Management has responded by raising its free cash flow guidance. The conversion rate from adjusted EBITDA is now expected to reach around 50% in 2026, up from an earlier target of roughly 40%. The company attributes the improvement to higher customer prepayments and faster government buying cycles. The net debt ratio target of 1.5 times EBITDA remains intact, underscoring a solid financial footing.
Analyst targets point to upside
Sell?side analysts see substantial upside from current levels. The average price target hovers near €90, while Morningstar assigns a fair value of €110 – implying a potential gain of more than 60% from yesterday’s close. Whether those forecasts materialise will hinge on the company’s ability to convert its record order book into recognised revenue, something the upcoming quarterly results will be scrutinised for.
Ukraine partnership adds a strategic layer
Hensoldt is not standing still operationally. At the Eurosatory defence exhibition in Paris on 16 June, the company struck a partnership with Ukrainian firm Fire Point to jointly develop the “Freyja” ground?based air?defence system. Hensoldt will supply its high?performance TRML-4D radars, while Fire Point assumes the role of prime contractor. The deal aligns with Hensoldt’s pivot towards software?driven defence solutions with an artificial intelligence component – a narrative the management team is pressing hard during its current investor roadshow.
The roadshow has already made stops in London and Milan and concluded yesterday at the Jefferies DACH Corporate Conference in Baden?Baden. Despite the polished presentations and record numbers, the stock continues to slide. The €172,000 insider purchase by Dörre may yet prove prescient, but for now the market remains unconvinced. If the next set of financials shows that those record orders are feeding through to the bottom line, the bull case will gain a much?needed lift.
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