Hensoldt’s Ghost Bat Entry and BlackRock’s Subtle Shift Put a 40x Earnings Debate in Sharp Relief
Published on 07/26/2026 at 08:11 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Hensoldt ended Friday flat at €79.32, but the stillness of the share price belied a week rich with strategic and structural developments. The defense sensor specialist formalized its role in Boeing’s MQ-28 Ghost Bat program, while BlackRock quietly reshuffled its stake to stay just beneath a key disclosure threshold. The stock itself has recovered more than a quarter from its 52-week low in late June, yet remains roughly 31% adrift from the all-time high of €115.10 set last October.
At the Farnborough International Airshow, Boeing and Hensoldt signed a memorandum of understanding that cements the German company’s place in the industrial team for the MQ-28 Ghost Bat, an unmanned collaborative combat aircraft designed to fly alongside manned fighters. Hensoldt joins Rheinmetall, Rohde & Schwarz and Diehl Defence in backing Boeing’s bid for Germany’s future air-combat capability. The company will supply mission-critical sensor systems, mission-system components and integration services. Boeing Defence Australia runs the program, but the German air force has yet to make a final procurement decision, meaning Hensoldt’s involvement remains conditional.
That caveat matters because the broader defense-spending landscape is shifting. Analysts noted after the most recent NATO summit that investment priorities appeared to tilt toward naval and air-force platforms at the expense of land systems — a sensitive area for Hensoldt, where ground-based sensors form a core part of the business. The concern is that a pivot in procurement could leave the company exposed even as its order book swells.
And swell it has. Hensoldt’s order backlog hit a record €9.8 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with a book-to-bill ratio of 3.0 — well above the company’s own annual guidance. Management also raised its forecast for adjusted free-cash-flow conversion in 2026, citing higher customer prepayments and faster German procurement processes. Those are hard operational facts that sit uncomfortably alongside the valuation skeptics’ narrative.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?
Yet the valuation debate is where the real tension lies. At a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 40, the stock leaves almost no margin for error. One research house — mwb research — downgraded Hensoldt from Hold to Sell, slashing its price target to €62. The rationale: the recent rally lacked fundamental justification, and the shares now trade at a multiple of expected 2026 operating earnings that exceeds the analyst’s own fair-value calculation. Jefferies, by contrast, lifted its target from €90 to €94 and reiterated a Buy rating, while the DZ Bank trimmed its fair value from €98 to €90 after the Eurosatory trade fair but still sees double-digit percentage upside over the coming decade. The consensus from 16 analyst estimates lands at roughly €90, though the range stretches from €60 to €105.
Chart technicians have their own signal to weigh. The stock has climbed back above its 200-day moving average of €78.78, a level that often attracts momentum-driven buyers. The relative strength index stands at 58.8, leaving room for further gains without signaling overbought conditions. But the gap to the record high is a reminder of how deep the correction ran.
Meanwhile, BlackRock’s latest regulatory filing added a layer of institutional nuance. The asset manager increased its directly held and attributed stake from 2.81% to 3.17% as of July 13, while reducing exposure through financial instruments — securities lending and a contract for difference — from 2.18% to 1.83%. The net effect left BlackRock with 4.997% of voting rights, virtually unchanged from 4.996% and just below the threshold that would trigger additional disclosure obligations. The move looks more like a portfolio rebalancing than a conviction bet.
Hensoldt at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.
Hensoldt will publish its half-year report on July 31, 2026 — the first major earnings release from the defense sector since the cancellation of the F126 frigate program. With the Ghost Bat deal, BlackRock’s fine-tuning, a record order book and a valuation that demands perfection, the quarterly numbers are set to land in an unusually charged atmosphere. The stock’s annualized volatility of 53.48% suggests investors should brace for a sharp reaction in either direction.
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