Hensoldt’s Record Quarter Fails to Ignite the Stock as Analyst Views Diverge Sharply

Hensoldt delivered its strongest first quarter on record, with revenue surging 25% to €496 million and adjusted EBITDA jumping nearly 47% to €44 million. Yet the market response was muted at best, with shares slipping 0.25% to close at €80.66 — a far cry from the 52-week high of €115.10.

The disconnect between operational momentum and investor sentiment stems largely from a cautious management outlook that has left analysts deeply divided. The stock now trades roughly 30% below its peak, despite a 15% gain over the past twelve months.

Optronics Leads the Charge

The Optronics division emerged as the standout performer. Adjusted EBITDA in that segment rocketed from just €1 million to €12 million, pushing the segment margin to 12.2% — up from a meager 1.3% in the prior-year period. Strong demand for thermal imaging cameras and periscopes drove the improvement.

Across the group, the adjusted EBITDA margin climbed to 8.9% from 7.6% a year earlier. The net loss narrowed to €19 million from €30 million, while earnings per share improved to -€0.16 from -€0.26 — a typical seasonal pattern as costs are front-loaded in the first quarter.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Hensoldt?

Order intake nearly doubled to roughly €1.5 billion, pushing the total order backlog to a record €9.8 billion. Key contracts included radar components for the Eurofighter, the Puma infantry fighting vehicle, and the Schakal reconnaissance system.

A Chorus of Conflicting Voices

The analyst community is unusually fractured on Hensoldt’s prospects. The gap between the most bullish and most bearish price targets stands at €36 — a spread that underscores the uncertainty surrounding the stock.

DZ Bank maintained its buy recommendation but trimmed its price target from €104 to €98. Analyst Holger Schmidt noted that while quarterly results beat estimates, the company’s forward guidance struck a cautious tone. JPMorgan kept its neutral rating and €85 target, arguing that rivals Rheinmetall and Renk offer more upside. Jefferies remained more optimistic with a buy rating and €90 target, citing exceptional order momentum.

At the bearish end, mwb research reiterated its sell recommendation with a €62 price target, pointing to a price-to-earnings ratio of 45 based on 2026 estimates. Barclays, meanwhile, held at equal weight with a €95 target, flagging weak free cash flow despite the strong order book.

Full-Year Targets Stay Firm

Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance: group revenue of roughly €2.75 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin between 18.5% and 19.0%, and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5 to 2.0. The latter would signal that order intake continues to outpace revenue growth significantly.

Hensoldt at a turning point? This analysis reveals what investors need to know now.

The planned acquisition of Dutch specialist Nedinsco, announced in March, is expected to close by mid-2026 and will bolster the Optronics portfolio. On a separate note, Inka Tews, formerly of Infineon, took over as chief human resources officer on May 1.

DCF-based models suggest an intrinsic value of around €113 per share — well above the current trading level. Whether that gap closes will depend on Hensoldt’s ability to deliver convincing results in the second quarter and demonstrate that its record backlog can translate into sustained earnings growth.

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