India's Silver Imports Plunge 91% as Fed Hawkishness and Oil Spike Drive Metal to Six-Month Low
Published on 07/18/2026 at 22:02 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
The silver market is contending with a rare dual shock: a collapse in physical demand from the world's largest importer alongside relentless pressure from US monetary tightening and surging oil costs. The white metal closed Friday at $56.22 per ounce, trimming a modest 0.82% gain from the session but unable to reverse a 6.70% weekly loss that left the price more than 53% below its January peak of $121.78.
India's imports of silver cratered to just 46.8 metric tons in May, down from 534.3 tons in the same month last year — a 91% drop that signals a sudden halt in appetite from a key source of global demand. The retreat comes even as the global market braces for a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit, forecast at 46.3 million ounces for 2026, up 15% from the prior year. On the production side, Chinese export licensing restrictions are estimated to curb 60–70% of refined silver outflows, while a state of emergency decree in Peru from mid-May and ongoing security risks in Mexican mining operations add further supply-side friction.
The price action, however, has been dictated largely by macro forces. Two Federal Reserve officials — Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson — reinforced hawkish signals in recent days, with Jefferson explicitly pledging support for tighter policy if inflation does not improve. Although consumer and producer prices softened in June, partly on lower energy costs, import prices rose unexpectedly and the consumer price index remains at 4.2%, well above the Fed's 2% target. A recovery in oil prices has compounded inflationary fears, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
Chart technicians see tentative signs of exhaustion in the selloff. The Relative Strength Index on silver stands at 34.8, deep in oversold territory. The gold-to-silver ratio has widened to roughly 69-to-1, a level that historically points to silver being relatively cheap compared to gold. Yet the metal trades well below its key moving averages, keeping the near-term trend firmly bearish.
Attention now turns to the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting on July 28–29. Markets assign roughly a 90% probability that the Fed will hold its benchmark rate steady in the current 3.50%–3.75% range, but the odds of a September hike have climbed to about 50%, with nine of 18 FOMC participants signaling at least one more increase this year. A softer tone from the central bank could offer silver temporary relief; a continued hard line would likely extend the downward grind, even as the structural supply deficit and oversold technical conditions suggest the metal may be building a floor near current levels.
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