Inside ITM Power: A Former Rolls-Royce Chief’s Bet, a Government’s Paper Profit, and a £46.5m Subsidy Hang-Up
Published on 07/05/2026 at 09:33 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
ITM Power’s stock has been a study in extremes. The shares closed Friday at €1.48, up 2.35% on the day and 14.01% on the week, yet that still leaves them 42.55% below the year’s peak of €2.58 reached at the end of May. Over the past 12 months the stock has gained 44.21%, but the ride has been anything but smooth — annualised 30-day volatility stands at over 113%. The catalyst for the latest bounce: an insider purchase by one of Britain’s most recognised corporate turnround specialists.
Sir Warren East, the former chief executive of Rolls-Royce and ARM, bought 172,000 ordinary shares in ITM Power at the end of June for around £197,000. It is the only stake the ex-ARM boss holds in the company, and market watchers have taken note. East, known for his successful restructuring track record, stepped in precisely when the stock was trading deep in the red relative to its 2025 high. His move is being read as a signal of board-level confidence in the hydrogen electrolyser maker’s long-term strategy — even as near-term uncertainty hangs over a critical funding decision.
That uncertainty centres on a £46.5m grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), which is stuck in review by the Subsidy Advice Unit of the Competition and Markets Authority. The subsidy is earmarked for ITM Power’s planned automated 1-gigawatt electrolyser production line in Sheffield, a project that requires total investment of £120m and is slated to begin commercial operations in 2028. A decision, originally expected by the end of June, has yet to be formally confirmed from London. Without the green light, the timetable — and the broader investment case — wavers.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying ITM Power?
The regulatory logjam exists alongside a government-backed equity injection that has already paid off handsomely. In April, the state investment vehicle Great British Energy bought into ITM Power at roughly 56 pence per share. That stake is now worth around ÂŁ94m, representing a paper gain of some ÂŁ54m. Great British Energy holds 10.4% of the company as part of an ÂŁ86.5m overall investment package that included the ÂŁ40m equity piece alongside the still-pending grant. The paper profit underscores how quickly sentiment in the hydrogen sector can shift on regulatory and operational headlines.
Operationally, the company has been making headway. The order book has climbed to ÂŁ152m, while first-half revenue hit a record ÂŁ18m. The share of profitable contracts within that order book rose from 60% in April 2025 to 71% today. The remaining 29% are older projects expected to convert into revenue over the next 18 months. On the balance sheet, ITM Power holds ÂŁ197.8m in cash, down just ÂŁ9.2m over the past twelve months.
Analysts have taken note of the improving metrics. The consensus fair value for the stock has risen to £1.31, with individual price targets ranging from £1.10 to £2.00. Yet opinion remains split. At least one major investment bank still carries a sell rating, pointing to execution risks relative to the current valuation. The technical picture is equally ambiguous: the relative strength index sits at a neutral 46.7, 15.36% below the 50-day moving average of €1.75 but 39.84% above the 200-day line of €1.06.
With the equity already buoyed by insider buying and a government-backed paper profit, the next concrete catalyst will be the formal confirmation — or rejection — of the DESNZ grant. That, combined with progress in converting the order backlog into recognised sales, will determine whether the recent uptick has staying power, or whether the 113% volatility that has defined the stock this year once again reasserts itself.
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ITM Power Stock: New Analysis - 5 July
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