Intel's Unlikely Ascent: Government Stake, Apple Pact, and a 230% Rally
Published on 05/12/2026 at 13:03 | Redaktion boerse-global.de
Intel’s transformation from a struggling semiconductor giant into a geopolitical industrial project is reshaping its stock in ways few analysts predicted. The US government now holds roughly 10% of the company after converting about $9 billion in CHIPS Act grants into equity, giving Intel a financial backstop that goes beyond traditional investors. The rally has seen the stock surge as much as 230% since the start of the year, though it pulled back to €106.86 after hitting a record high of €109.84, still up around 218%.
The catalyst for the latest leg of the rally is a reported tentative agreement for Intel to manufacture Apple’s M-series chips for Macs at its Arizona fabs. According to a Wall Street Journal report, negotiations that had been underway for over a year have now reached a formal stage. Intel would produce the chips using its 18A-P process, with production slated to begin in the second half of 2027. The initial volume is estimated at 15 to 20 million chips annually.
For Intel’s foundry division, the Apple deal is far more than a prestige order. It would subject the company’s manufacturing capabilities to the most demanding commercial test possible. Analysts estimate that a full-fledged partnership with Apple opens up a total addressable market of up to $40 billion for Intel Foundry Services (IFS). Capturing even a quarter of that volume would translate into annual revenues exceeding $10 billion in the long run.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Intel?
The financial results are beginning to support the narrative shift. In the first quarter, Intel reported revenue of $13.6 billion, topping analyst expectations of $12.4 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.29. The data center and AI segment grew 22% to $5.1 billion, with CEO Lip-Bu Tan describing demand for AI infrastructure as "unprecedented." The foundry business remains a drag, posting an operating loss of $2.4 billion, though that improved sequentially by $72 million.
Intel is also gathering other key partners to bolster its foundry credibility. Nvidia invested $5 billion in Intel Foundry and is reportedly working with Intel on a consumer product code-named "Serpent Lake." SK Hynix is testing Intel’s EMIB packaging technology for HBM memory, potentially offering an alternative to TSMC’s capacity-constrained CoWoS packaging. In Europe, Intel bought back a key factory in Ireland for $14.2 billion, signaling its long-term commitment to expanding manufacturing capacity.
Despite the momentum, Wall Street remains sharply divided on valuation. Bank of America raised its price target from $56 to $96 but maintained an "Underperform" rating, warning that much of the Apple optimism is already priced in. HSBC set a target of $95, while the consensus stands at just $75.64. The bank noted that if Intel captures 10 billion of the Apple-led foundry opportunity by 2030, the stock would be justified. But skeptics argue that TSMC will still hold about 70% market share for cutting-edge chips, as Apple is unlikely to shift its massive iPhone volumes away from its Taiwanese supplier.
The immediate test for Intel is not today’s pullback but whether it can qualify the 18A-P process in time for Apple’s planned production start in the second half of 2027. Until then, the stock’s valuation hangs on execution – and on whether the foundry can keep narrowing its losses while winning the trust of the world’s most demanding chip customers.
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Intel Stock: New Analysis - 12 May
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